Zay Flowers draws negative fantasy football draft forecasts
Fantasy analysts at Fantasy Life are fading Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers for 2026 drafts, citing coaching-change risk for Jackson and a historical touchdown drought pattern for Flowers. Baltimore still sees red-zone upside for Flowers, even as he sat out Tuesday practice with no reason given.
Key Takeaways
- Matthew Freedman listed Lamar Jackson among 12 players to fade for 2026 fantasy drafts.
- Dwain McFarland flagged Zay Flowers for a career touchdown problem backed by historical WR data.
- Flowers has 14 receiving TDs in three seasons and never topped five in a year.
- Flowers missed Tuesday practice while observing in street clothes, his first miss of 2026.
- New Ravens coach Jesse Minter still expects Flowers to stay productive across the field.
The mixed signals matter for fantasy managers tracking Baltimore this August. For more alerts like this, check our Streaming & TV Alerts hub.
Why are fantasy experts fading Zay Flowers?
In a Fantasy Life newsletter published Aug. 4, Peter Overzet said colleagues have cooled on both Jackson and Flowers.
Dwain McFarland highlighted Flowers’ scoring issue: from 2012 to 2024, eight wide receivers who ran 26-plus routes per game and scored five or fewer touchdowns in their first three seasons never became regular 8-plus TD scorers. That cohort averaged about five touchdowns per season in their primes.
DJ Moore, Jarvis Landry, and Kenny Stills managed only one spike season of eight-plus scores. Overzet still likes drafting Flowers, but he said the data forced him to rethink ceiling outcomes.
What do the Ravens say about more touchdowns?
A Baltimore Ravens Late for Work piece notes Flowers has back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and Pro Bowl nods, yet only 14 touchdown catches in three years.
Per Sports Info Solutions via The Baltimore Banner, Flowers had 79 catches on 107 targets for 1,184 yards and four touchdowns outside the red zone last season. Inside the 20, he saw just 11 targets, seven catches for 27 yards, and one score.
Baltimore’s red-zone touchdown rate fell to 47.5% (27th) after ranking first at 73.4% in 2024. Head coach Jesse Minter said Flowers “can thrive at any area of the field” and expects him to be “really productive.”
Why is Lamar Jackson also getting fade talk?
Freedman’s fade case centers on first-time head coach Jesse Minter, a defensive coach by trade, and new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, a first-time NFL play-caller.
Jackson has missed 14 games to injury over the past half-decade and posted a career-low 26.8 rushing yards per game last season. At 29, Freedman suggested Jackson may be entering the downside of his Ravens tenure.
Overzet still believes Jackson and Flowers can be good picks, but he is dialing back the highest ceiling scenarios after those arguments.
Did Zay Flowers miss practice this week?
Yes. According to Heavy.com, Flowers did not practice Tuesday and watched from the field in street clothes. ESPN’s Jamison Hensley and The Baltimore Sun reported it was his first missed practice of 2026, with no reason given.
That absence is worth monitoring early in camp, even as contract chatter continues around a possible extension that could average over $35 million per season.