Yankees Red Sox prediction: Game 82 lineups and sweep stakes
DIRECT ANSWER: The Yankees–Red Sox prediction for Game 82 leans Over 8 runs per SportsLine's 10,000-simulation model, even with Boston (-120) favored behind Sonny Gray (9-1, 2.95 ERA) against Carlos Rodón. New York aims to avoid its first four-game sweep of 2026 on NBC at 7:20 p.m. ET.
Key Takeaways
- Boston can complete a rare four-game Fenway sweep—never done vs. first-place New York while last in the AL East.
- Red Sox starters have posted 10 straight quality starts, their longest streak since 1988.
- SportsLine's advanced model projects Over 8 runs and flags money-line value after 10,000 simulations.
- Confirmed lineups: Rice and Chisholm lead New York; Contreras and Rafaela anchor Boston.
- Yankees fell out of first place by percentage points for the first time since June 6.
Why Does Game 82 Matter Beyond the Rivalry?
Sunday night at Fenway is more than another Yankees–Red Sox chapter. Boston (35-46) has won the first three games of this series and can post its first four-game win streak of the season. New York (48-34) is trying to avoid its first four-game sweep of 2026.
According to Yahoo Sports, the Red Sox have swept the Yankees seven times in four-game series—but never when Boston sat last in the division and New York held first place. The Yankees entered this set atop the AL East but have dropped three straight while Tampa Bay has tied them for the lead.
What Do the Confirmed Lineups Look Like?
The Boston Globe published Game 82 lineups ahead of the 7:20 p.m. NBC/Peacock broadcast. Carlos Rodón (4-2, 3.70 ERA) starts for New York; Sonny Gray (9-1, 2.95 ERA) counters for Boston.
Yankees (48-34): Chisholm 2B, Rice 1B, Dominguez RF, Bellinger LF, Jones CF, Rosario DH, Cabrera 3B, Wells C, Caballero SS.
Red Sox (35-46): Eaton LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu RF, Contreras 1B, Gonzalez DH, Durbin 3B, Seigler 2B, Wong C, Cheng SS.
Gray is 7-0 in nine starts since returning from the injured list May 6. Ben Rice homered off him on June 5 but is 2-for-23 over his last six games. Rodón is 5-6 with a 4.28 ERA in 12 career starts against Boston.
What Does the Advanced Model Say?
The CBS Sports breakdown centers on SportsLine's projection model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. For this matchup—the teams' 2,335th all-time meeting—Boston is listed at -120 with a total of 8 runs.
After 10,000 simulations, the model favors the Over. Since the start of 2025, the Over is 17-8-1 (68%) in Yankees games when New York is not the favorite. Boston's last six Sunday games have gone Over at a 4-2 clip.
Rodón faces Boston for the first time this season but posted a 5.40 ERA across four starts against the Red Sox last year. Gray has allowed nine earned runs over his last 11.1 innings versus New York (7.15 ERA). The model projects 8.5 combined runs and identifies money-line value on one side—worth tracking as analytics reshape how fans read marquee matchups in our Future Tech & AI Wonders coverage.
Can Boston's Pitching Streak Hold?
Boston's rotation has carried this series. Connelly Early, Payton Tolle, and rookie Jake Bennett combined for three runs and 19 strikeouts over 19⅓ innings. Bennett's Saturday quality start marked Boston's 10th in a row—the longest streak since 14 consecutive in 1988.
"When you think about that, how difficult that it is to do," interim manager Chad Tracy said. "To get 10 straight guys go out there and throw six or more (innings) and three or less runs, it's pretty impressive."
New York has lost six of its last eight and managed just one run on three hits in each of the past two games. Gray's task Sunday: extend the streak and deliver a sweep that could fuel Boston's second-half momentum.