World Cup last 16 picks: shocks, best games and winners
DIRECT ANSWER: Who plays the world Cup last 16 first? Canada vs Morocco and France vs Paraguay on July 4. Athletic writers pick Spain-Portugal and Mexico-England as the best ties, see Mexico and Norway as top upset spots, and still rate France as favorite—though Spain, Morocco and Argentina could challenge Les Bleus.
Key Takeaways
- Round of 16 runs July 4–7 after the expanded 48-team tournament added a round of 32 hurdle.
- Must-watch ties include Spain vs Portugal, Mexico vs England at the Azteca, and U.S. vs Belgium in Seattle.
- Upset picks cluster around Mexico over England, Norway over Brazil, and Canada stunning Morocco.
- France remains the title favorite behind Kylian Mbappé, but Spain’s defense and Morocco’s 2022 run worry analysts.
- 22 group-stage goals came after the 90th minute—expect more late drama in the knockout rounds.
Who plays the World Cup round of 16 today?
Day 24 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup opens the last 16 on Saturday, July 4. Canada faces Morocco at 1 p.m. ET in Houston, a rematch of Morocco’s 2022 group-stage win before its historic semifinal run. Kylian Mbappé’s unbeaten France meets Paraguay at 5 p.m. ET in Philadelphia on America’s 250th birthday—Paraguay eliminated four-time champion Germany on penalties in the round of 32.
Both matches air on FOX and stream on FOX One, with Spanish coverage on Telemundo. France swept its group and routed Sweden 3-0 in the round of 32; Mbappé’s six goals trail only Lionel Messi in the Golden Boot race. For the full knockout slate, see the FOX Sports viewing guide.
Which last-16 games are the best on the bracket?
Multiple Athletic writers named Spain vs Portugal an Iberian derby classic—Cristiano Ronaldo’s last World Cup against Lamine Yamal’s rising Spain. Others highlighted Mexico vs England at Estadio Azteca as the tie of the round, citing altitude, host passion, and decades of lore. Brazil vs Norway drew praise for Erling Haaland’s Vikings against a beatable Seleção, while Carl Anka flagged U.S. vs Belgium as a potential legacy game for American soccer.
The Boston Globe notes Vinícius Júnior and Haaland headline Sunday’s Brazil-Norway clash, while Monday’s Portugal-Spain showdown in Dallas carries deep rivalry history. Spain keeper Unai Simón has not conceded a goal, dating to 2022, and La Roja can “go 120-plus with anyone.”
Where will the biggest shocks come?
Analysts split on upset candidates. Stuart James and Tim Spiers backed Norway to beat Brazil, citing Haaland’s form and Brazil’s vulnerability. Carl Anka and Henry Bushnell picked Mexico over England, noting El Tri’s brilliant football against Ecuador and England’s physical exhaustion across four matches. Lukas Weese predicted Canada would stun Morocco to open the round of 16.
Phil Hay argued a U.S. win over Belgium would not qualify as a full upset given home momentum, even without Folarin Balogun. The Globe adds Morocco likely has too much quality for Canada—but after Cape Verde pushed Argentina to the limit, competitive balance has defined this tournament.
Who wins if France does not lift the trophy?
France enters as favorite, having avoided Germany after Paraguay’s upset. Athletic writers named Spain most often as the team capable of stopping Les Bleus, pointing to Rodri’s midfield control and Unai Simón’s clean sheet. Morocco, Portugal, Argentina, and even co-hosts Mexico or the U.S. drew mentions—Henry Bushnell noted “weird stuff happens in knockout tournaments.”
For Golden Boot projections after this round, most writers tipped Mbappé or Messi, with Michael Olise teeing up France’s attack. The quarterfinals begin July 9, with a possible France-Morocco rematch of the 2022 semifinal if results hold. For more on peak performance under tournament strain, browse our Longevity & Biohacking coverage—England’s fatigue debate shows how grueling these schedules can be.