Wealth Hacks & Passive Income · Tyler Moss · 20 August 2026

WMT stock: what to expect from Walmart Q2 earnings

WMT stock: what to expect from Walmart Q2 earnings

Walmart reports fiscal second-quarter earnings before the bell on Thursday, Aug. 20, with Street estimates near 74 cents EPS and about $186.77 billion in revenue. For WMT stock, the focus is consumer demand, tariff refunds, and whether the retail giant can clear a high bar after missing Street expectations in the prior quarter.

Key Takeaways

As the largest U.S. retailer, Walmart’s report is more than a company update. It is a live read on shoppers navigating a K-shaped economy—and a catalyst that can move WMT stock in either direction when the numbers hit.

Readers tracking income-style holdings can also browse more ideas in our Wealth Hacks & Passive Income hub.

When does Walmart report, and what are the numbers to beat?

Walmart is expected to publish fiscal second-quarter earnings before the opening bell on Thursday, then host analysts at 8 a.m. ET, according to CNBC.

A survey of analysts by LSEG points to earnings per share of 74 cents and revenue of $186.77 billion. Separately, 24/7 Wall St. notes that management guided Q2 FY27 to adjusted EPS of 72 cents to 74 cents on 4% to 5% constant-currency sales growth.

That narrow EPS band matters for WMT stock. A clean beat or miss can shift the narrative quickly after a quarter in which expectations were already reset lower.

Prediction-market traders have priced about a 75.5% to 76% probability of an earnings beat heading into the release, according to the Yahoo Finance piece summarizing 24/7 Wall St. research. Markets are not destiny, but they do show how crowded the “beat” call has become.

Why does this quarter matter for WMT stock and consumers?

CNBC frames the print as a check on the health of the U.S. consumer. Walmart has leaned into value for lower-income shoppers while also winning more high-income customers, and executives have said the divide between income groups is widening.

Last quarter, the company issued a worse-than-expected full-year outlook, citing soaring gas prices and softer consumer confidence. Fiscal first quarter was only the third time in 16 quarters that Walmart failed to beat quarterly earnings expectations—raising the stakes for a rebound.

Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey previously told CNBC that higher tax refunds may have “muted” some pressure on consumers early in the year, and that the dynamic was built into second-quarter guidance. Any update on whether that cushion faded will be closely watched.

Bernstein analysts, in a late July note cited by CNBC, argued comparable sales may be slowing as Walmart laps tariff-driven price increases that once lifted revenue. They also flagged grocery price-cut talk, weak peer read-across, and inflation pressure on low-income shoppers—while still calling Walmart’s pricing, assortment, and delivery fundamentally strong.

Q1 FY27 already showed operating momentum on several fronts, per 24/7 Wall St.: revenue of $175.68 billion (+6.1% year over year), global eCommerce up 26%, advertising up 37%, and membership fee revenue up 17%. Walmart U.S. comparable sales rose 4.1% excluding fuel, with traffic up 3%.

Macro data also offered a volume backdrop: BEA figures cited in that report put June 2026 food spending at $1.573 trillion versus $1.527 trillion a year earlier—the kind of basket growth Walmart often converts into share gains.

Could tariff refunds create a surprise in the results?

CNBC says Walmart is expected to discuss how tariff refunds shaped the quarter. Peer results have already shown large swings from the same theme.

Target said its latest quarterly results included a $752 million boost to net earnings, or $1.65 per share, from tariff refunds. Home Depot and Lowe’s also reported earnings lifts from refunds; Home Depot said $685 million of its refunds reduced cost of goods sold.

If Walmart discloses a similar benefit—or signals how much was used to cut prices versus pad margins—that color could matter as much as the headline EPS for WMT stock traders parsing quality of earnings.

Peer context cuts both ways for sentiment. Target has posted three consecutive quarters of year-over-year sales declines, 24/7 Wall St. notes, while Walmart’s comps stayed positive. Costco remains a richer-multiple alternative; that report pegs Walmart near a 40 price-to-earnings multiple with a dividend yield of about 0.82%.

What else should long-term WMT stock holders watch?

Beyond the beat-or-miss binary, income-focused investors are watching capital returns. Walmart raised its annual dividend to 99 cents per share from 94 cents and authorized a new $30 billion repurchase program, with $28.2 billion remaining, according to 24/7 Wall St.

In Q1 alone, the company retired 16.6 million shares for $2.1 billion at an average price of $125.51. Analysts carried a $137.97 price target against a then-current quote of $115.33, with 28 Buy and nine Strong Buy ratings against a single Sell rating in that snapshot.

The main near-term caution in the same report is cash flow: Q1 FY27 free cash flow was -$1.9 billion on capital expenditure of $6.68 billion (+34% year over year). Management is funding automation and same-day delivery—the spend that helped produce FY26 free cash flow of $14.92 billion (+17.88%) and store-fulfilled delivery growth of 45%.

For portfolio builders who treat blue-chip retail as a long-horizon holding rather than a day trade, the Aug. 20 release is a chance to test whether growth engines (eCommerce, ads, membership) still offset consumer pressure and heavy investment. Keep expectations anchored to the guided 72–74 cent EPS range, listen for tariff-refund detail, and judge whether guidance still matches a cautious consumer backdrop.

That is the practical checklist for WMT stock into the bell: consensus numbers, consumer tone, refund accounting, and the durability of buybacks and dividends after another busy retail earnings week.

← Open in blast feed