Wimbledon Monday picks: Rublev upset alert and best bets
Andrey Rublev opens Wimbledon 2026 against Roman Safiullin on Court 16 Monday, June 29, and VSiN's sharpest Monday play is not the world No. 13—it is backing Safiullin on the +3.5 game spread and as a half-unit moneyline flyer at +163. Rublev's thin grass prep and Hurkacz loss make this Russian derby a live underdog spot.
The 2026 Championships are officially underway at the All England Club in London, where sunny skies and temperatures around 21 degrees Celsius greeted opening-day fans, per Reuters. While Centre Court headlines Jannik Sinner, Aryna Sabalenka and Novak Djokovic, the most contrarian betting angle on the board may sit on Court 16, where two Russians collide in a first-round thriller that has the Bizarre World of Grand Slam draws written all over it.
Key Takeaways
- VSiN backs Safiullin +3.5 games (-120) and a half-unit on Safiullin ML (+163) against Rublev.
- Rublev, ranked No. 13, lost his only pre-Wimbledon grass match 6-3, 6-2 to Hubert Hurkacz in Halle.
- Safiullin won all three qualifying matches after playing six grass-court tune-ups, per VSiN.
- 365Scores lists the Rublev-Safiullin first-rounder on Court 16 on Monday, June 29.
- VSiN also likes Tarvet ML (+118) and Siniakova ML (-125) on Monday's slate.
What happened on Wimbledon day one?
Play began Monday, June 29, across the All England Club grounds. Reuters reported opening-day order-of-play highlights on Centre Court starting at 12:30 GMT, with defending champion Jannik Sinner facing Miomir Kecmanovic, top-seeded Aryna Sabalenka meeting Teodora Kostovic, and seven-time champion Novak Djokovic taking on Wu Yibing.
Court One and Court Two also hosted star-packed openers, including Daniil Medvedev, Jessica Pegula, Cameron Norrie and Coco Gauff. Away from the show courts, Rublev and Safiullin were scheduled for Court 16 in the men's singles first round, according to 365Scores.
Why is Andrey Rublev vulnerable against Roman Safiullin?
VSiN calls this a brutal draw for Rublev. The world No. 13 played just one grass-court match before arriving at Wimbledon, and that Halle opener ended in a straight-sets loss to Hubert Hurkacz. Losing to Hurkacz on grass is hardly a scandal, but VSiN flagged concern that Rublev could not rack up holds comfortably even against the Polish serve.
Safiullin brings a heavy baseline game and form that VSiN argues is far stronger than his No. 127 ranking suggests. He played six matches on grass before qualifying and swept all three qualifying rounds to reach the main draw. VSiN wrote that it should surprise no one if Safiullin has real chances to win outright, which is why the outlet split its recommendation between the game spread and a modest moneyline flutter.
What are the best Wimbledon bets beyond the Rublev match?
VSiN's full Monday card extends past the Russian derby. Oliver Tarvet gets a 1.5-unit moneyline play at +118 against Arthur Rinderknech. Tarvet did not drop a set in qualifying and is targeting a second straight Wimbledon opening-round win, while Rinderknech entered with a 12-15 record in 2026, weak returning numbers and injury concerns.
On the women's side, VSiN backs Katerina Siniakova on the moneyline at -125 against Qinwen Zheng. Zheng's hard- and clay-court winning percentages are elite, but VSiN noted she is just 2-3 on grass this season and has battled health issues. Siniakova's grass pedigree and net-rushing doubles instincts give her the edge on these fast lawns, even if casual bettors flock to the Olympic gold medalist.
Where can you follow Rublev vs Safiullin?
365Scores lists the matchup for Monday, June 29, with live stats including aces, double faults and break-point conversion once play begins on Court 16. For the full breakdown of VSiN's reasoning and additional line-movement plays, the outlet's Monday Wimbledon picks page remains the primary betting guide for this slate.
Whether Rublev rights the ship or Safiullin springs the upset, this Court 16 clash captures why opening Monday at Wimbledon is never just about the marquee names—it is also about the matchups that make sharps reach for the plus-money side.