Will the US get CLARITY this week? Odds sit at 40%
Unlikely for a clean win: Polymarket prices odds of the CLARITY Act passing this year at just 40% as ethics fights dominate. Traders asking will the get clarity this week face long odds, though a Senate vote may still land before Aug. 10. Bitcoin trades near $64,600 with an $80,000 August call in play.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket odds for CLARITY Act passage this year sit near 40% after Democratic senators pushed back over ethics.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune says a vote will definitely happen before Aug. 10 and could come as early as this week.
- Analyst Michaël van de Poppe sees BTC at $75,000–$80,000 in August if nearby resistance clears.
- Prediction markets hit a record $113.8 billion in Q2 notional volume while top CEX spot volume fell.
- US agencies missed the GENIUS Act stablecoin rulemaking deadline, leaving issuers with less compliance time.
Will the CLARITY Act clear the Senate this week?
The bill’s path now turns on Trump-linked crypto ethics, per Cointelegraph’s Hodler’s Digest. Democratic senators including Chris Murphy, Jeff Merkley and Chris Van Hollen spoke out against the measure.
Senator Elizabeth Warren highlighted how much President Trump has extracted from the industry and demanded he voluntarily release crypto earnings for this year. His 2025 disclosure showed more than a billion dollars from crypto last year.
Senate Democrats are unlikely to back the bill without a ban on elected officials promoting or issuing cryptocurrency. Blockchain Association CEO Summer Mersinger called ethics “the big elephant in the room,” urging Congress not to kill the rest of the hard-fought legislation over politics.
Thune has said the crucial Senate vote will be held before Aug. 10. Follow related coverage in BlasterPost’s Fintech & Crypto Alerts.
What is Bitcoin’s new $80K August target based on?
At week’s end Bitcoin sat near $64,620, Ether near $1,868 and XRP at $1.09, with total market cap around $2.21 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap figures cited in the digest.
Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe said BTC defended “crucial” support at $61,000 and flipped important moving averages. He expects a rally to $68,000 in one to two weeks, then a continuation toward $75,000–$80,000 in August. Other voices, including nichoxbt, still expect a slide back under $60,000.
What else moved crypto markets this week?
Spot volume on the top 10 centralized exchanges fell from $2.7 trillion in Q1 to $1.95 trillion in Q2, CoinGecko data showed. Prediction markets were the standout, posting a record $113.8 billion in notional volume. France’s National Gambling Authority ordered ISPs to block Polymarket as illegal gambling.
The US Treasury and UK HM Treasury issued joint digital-asset recommendations, including that stablecoins be fully backed one-to-one by high-quality liquid assets. Days later, US agencies missed Saturday’s GENIUS Act rulemaking deadline; the law still stands, but unfinished rules mean less time for issuers before January.
Separately, Strategy’s Michael Saylor published “110 reasons” against BIP-110, a temporary fork proposal aimed at limiting Ordinals-style data on Bitcoin. He said he shares the objectives but disagrees with the remedy.