Why OpenAI and Anthropic may struggle to float their IPOs
OpenAI and Anthropic are racing toward megacap IPOs, but heavy losses, backlash against token-based pricing, and Sam Altman's refusal to list OpenAI below a $1 trillion valuation may leave both AI labs struggling to pull off a smooth Wall Street float on the timeline investors expect. With enterprise buyers reining in AI spend and public markets turning cautious after SpaceX's volatile debut, the second half of 2026 may bring filings, not finished listings.
Key Takeaways
- Anthropic was valued at $965 billion in May and could debut as early as October, while OpenAI was last valued at $852 billion in March and may wait until 2027.
- Scrutiny of token-payment models is intensifying as executives at Microsoft, Meta, Salesforce, and Uber ration employee AI use.
- OpenAI posted a $38.5 billion net loss in 2025 and an $8.5 billion loss in the first quarter of 2026, according to reported figures.
- Sam Altman reportedly called any IPO valuation below $1 trillion a "nonstarter," even as advisers warned a faster listing might require a lower price.
- The Financial Times reports both labs face hurdles that could complicate a traditional float as scrutiny of AI business models grows.
Why are OpenAI and Anthropic speeding toward IPOs now?
America's leading AI labs are set to spend the second half of 2026 preparing for initial public offerings that could vault them into instant megacap status. Anthropic, valued at $965 billion in May, is slated to debut as early as October, while OpenAI, valued at $852 billion in March, is more likely to follow in 2027, according to Yahoo Finance.
OpenAI officially filed preliminary IPO paperwork in early June, but CEO Sam Altman stressed the company has "not decided on timing yet." The race is as much about credibility as capital: a public listing would force the private-market valuation story to meet institutional scrutiny.
What is tokenmaxxing and why does it threaten their business models?
As listings loom, questions about token-payment pricing are getting louder. Palantir CEO Alex Karp told CNBC that "something has gone completely wrong," arguing enterprises risk burning cash on pay-per-use AI without clear returns.
The slang term "tokenmaxxing" describes engineers overusing models to prove adoption, and companies including Uber, Microsoft, Salesforce, and Meta have begun rationing employee access. If corporate buyers pivot to cheaper open-weight tools, the revenue growth both labs need for a successful float weakens.
Can OpenAI meet Sam Altman's $1 trillion IPO bar?
That may be the central obstacle. The New York Times reported that advisers offered Altman two paths: wait until 2027 for a trillion-dollar valuation, or list sooner at a lower price. Altman rejected any cut below $1 trillion as a "nonstarter," according to The Motley Fool.
Profitability remains distant. OpenAI reportedly accrued a $38.5 billion net loss in 2025 and an $8.5 billion net loss in the first quarter of 2026. Altman has also said he is "0%" excited about becoming a public-company CEO, signaling the float is strategic, not personal, priority.
What could still stop a clean Wall Street listing?
The Financial Times warns that OpenAI and Anthropic may struggle to execute traditional IPOs as financial and structural pressures collide with public-market expectations. SpaceX's post-debut volatility has already made bankers cautious about megacap tech listings.
For investors tracking how AI giants are reshaping markets, our celebrity breaking news desk is following every twist in the IPO calendar. Until prospectuses land, the hype may outrun the float.