Who's winning Congress in the 2026 midterm elections?
Five weeks from Election Day, Democrats are winning the race for Congress in the 2026 midterm elections. Republicans are panicking over prices, the Iran war, and President Trump's message, with party leaders warning that once-safe red states now look competitive and a historically large blue wave is possible.
Key Takeaways
- With less than six weeks to go, GOP sentiment has shifted from nervous to fatalistic over a potential blue wave.
- Senate Republicans are prioritizing defense of seats in Texas, Iowa, Maine, and Alaska amid expanding toss-ups.
- Republicans want Trump to focus on the economy; he has instead threatened to escalate the Iran war.
- GOP groups are pouring tens of millions into once-safe states, including more than $100 million in Texas alone.
- House Republicans have reserved about $485 million in ads in Trump-won districts through Election Day.
Reporting from Time Magazine and The New York Times paints the same picture: the climate for the midterm elections is tilting hard against the party that holds the White House and Congress.
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Why are Republicans panicking ahead of the midterms?
Warning signs are stacking up in states Trump won comfortably in 2024. Outside groups backing Republicans are now spending millions on Senate races in Nebraska and Kansas. South Carolina, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Arkansas are also drawing renewed attention amid fears of a massive blue wave.
According to The New York Times, Republicans are panicking over prices—and over the president. Senate candidates in Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio have urged Trump to end the Iran war. In Kansas, an incumbent in a tough re-election fight admonished the administration over immigration raids.
Most Republicans want Trump to focus on the economy. Instead, he spent last week threatening to escalate the war, a move that could further drive up gas and diesel prices.
Which Senate races are most at risk for the GOP?
At a closed-door briefing, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, who leads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, delivered a grim message: 2026 will not look like 2024. He urged incumbents to "run like they were behind" so the NRSC could focus on a record number of toss-up races.
Scott said the committee's priority was saving GOP-held seats in Texas, Iowa, Maine, and Alaska. Republicans are still investing to flip Democratic seats in Michigan and New Hampshire, where recent polls show Democrats Abdul El-Sayed and Chris Pappas with small leads over Mike Rogers and John E. Sununu.
In Iowa, which Trump won by 13 points in 2024, radio host Steve Deace said House Republicans were told that even +15 districts are within the margin of error and +10 districts are underwater—and that this midterm environment might be worse than 2006.
In Texas, a super PAC blessed by Senate Majority Leader John Thune is on track to spend more than $100 million boosting Ken Paxton against James Talarico, with the GOP-side total approaching $200 million.
Can Trump's optimism reverse the midterm elections outlook?
Trump has been predicting midterms success, but Republicans are starting to panic anyway. House Republicans and allies have booked about $485 million in ads between Aug. 1 and Election Day in districts Trump won, according to a Politico analysis cited by Time.
Even Speaker Mike Johnson has grown frustrated with Trump's tumult. On NBC's Meet the Press on Sept. 13, Johnson bristled when pressed about Trump's promise of a $5,000 check for every American adult if Republicans keep their majorities.
Gas prices—especially diesel—remain high, the Iran war is grinding toward its eighth month, and Russia's war with Ukraine continues despite Trump's "day one" promise to end it. Republicans say they have cash and solid candidates, yet the midterm elections climate still looks bluer than they expected.