Who deserves NL Rookie of the Year: Wetherholt or Stewart?
By advanced metrics, Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt is the slight favorite for 2026 NL Rookie of the Year over Reds first baseman Sal Stewart. Wetherholt leads NL rookies in WAR with elite defense at second base, while Stewart counters with more home runs, RBIs, and clutch hitting. Voters and betting markets remain split.
During a five-game Reds-Cardinals series in Cincinnati in mid-August, the rookie race became a front-page debate. Both managers backed their player, and teammates on each side acknowledged the competition was real.
Key Takeaways
- JJ Wetherholt has roughly 4.5 to 4.8 bWAR and a Statcast fielding run value of 21 at second base.
- Sal Stewart had 27 home runs and 94-plus RBIs, including a 422-foot three-run homer during the series.
- FanDuel lists Wetherholt at -155 and Stewart at +185; an MLB.com ROY poll showed them nearly tied.
- The split echoes 2012 MVP debates over WAR versus traditional counting stats.
How do Wetherholt and Stewart compare on the numbers?
Wetherholt, 23, has been St. Louis's everyday leadoff hitter. He ranks among NL rookie leaders with 16 home runs, 115 hits, a .348 on-base percentage, and 13 stolen bases through Aug. 19.
Stewart bests him in slugging and power stats. He had 27 homers (14th in MLB) and briefly led baseball in RBIs. Bleacher Report listed his OPS at .809 versus Wetherholt's .721, though park factors at Great American Ball Park and Busch Stadium complicate comparisons.
Wetherholt played 119 of 123 games at second base with fielding run value of 21 on Statcast. Stewart's versatility—83 games at first, 45 at third, 11 at second—helps Cincinnati but registers a fielding run value of 1 in the same metrics.
Why does Wetherholt lead in WAR but Stewart stay in the race?
Baseball Reference and FanGraphs show Wetherholt at more than double Stewart's WAR—roughly 4.4 to 4.8 versus about 2.0 to 2.1. Cardinals manager Oli Marmol called Wetherholt the best second baseman in the league.
Reds voices push back. Closer Emilio Pagán said Stewart's willingness to move around the diamond adds value WAR may not capture. Terry Francona noted Stewart's 114 wRC+ over Wetherholt's 107 and his RBI total.
Stewart's clutch splits fuel the countercase. He hit about .315 with a .621 slugging mark with runners in scoring position, and his OPS exceeded 1.000 in high-leverage spots. Marmol even said he would rather pitch around Stewart than put him on base late in a series game.
What are fans and bettors saying about the NL ROY vote?
Betting markets favor Wetherholt, but national coverage described the vibe as evenly divided—a Pepsi Challenge between metrics and narrative rather than a WAR runaway.
Some analysts compare the tension to the 2012 Miguel Cabrera versus Mike Trout MVP fight. Stewart's power in a low-average, high-whiff league keeps the heart-versus-head debate alive in 2026. For readers tracking how markets price contested sports narratives, see our Fintech & Crypto Alerts hub.
Who will voters pick when head meets heart?
Stewart said he thinks about the award but prioritizes winning games. Wetherholt said he stays focused on his own play. Both praised the other's competitiveness.
If voters follow recent MVP patterns, Wetherholt's defensive edge likely wins. If they weight RBIs, All-Star status, and clutch hitting more heavily, Stewart has a credible path. The Athletic notes other NL rookies near two WAR, but the spotlight stays on this pair through August.