US dominates Polymarket political bets despite geoblock
US-based users dominate Polymarket political bets on the platform's global market despite geographic blocking, according to new Allium research published Thursday. American wallets lead every country by contracts traded and wallet count, bypassing restrictions meant to keep US citizens off the decentralized prediction platform. The findings underscore how demand for offshore political wagering persists even as regulators scrutinize the fast-growing predictions sector.
Blockchain research firm Allium estimated that US-based users are the single biggest political market of any country on Polymarket—not to be confused with Polymarket US, the narrower, US-regulated platform that launched in December. Researchers said blocking access did not end American participation.
Key Takeaways
- Allium found US wallets lead Polymarket political trading by contracts traded and wallet count despite geoblocks.
- Researchers said demand moved offshore and beyond US oversight after access restrictions.
- US users favored Iran conflict markets over election contracts that dominate elsewhere on the platform.
- A separate June study by Rutgers statistician Harry Crane estimated 30% of Polymarket volume comes from the US.
- The data adds to legal and political headaches for Polymarket in the predictions market sector.
Why do US users still dominate Polymarket political bets?
Allium's report suggests Polymarket's efforts to restrict US users from its global platform have not entirely worked. The firm wrote that blocking access did not end US participation and instead made the United States the largest single political market on Polymarket by volume.
"The demand is still there, now offshore and beyond US oversight," the report said. Users appear to be bypassing geoblocks to bet on markets offered on Polymarket's global platform, despite the company's blocking of US-based IP addresses and VPNs that could skirt those restrictions.
Allium's figures align with another study published in June by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane, who estimated that 30% of trading volume on Polymarket comes from the US. Crane estimated that people based in the US sent between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion through Polymarket between May 2025 and April 2026.
How does US trading on Polymarket differ from global users?
Allium found that US users are more interested in foreign conflict-related markets than the rest of the platform's users. Five of the US cohort's top 12 markets by notional volume related to the Iran war.
The report also shows a lesser interest in election-related markets, a category allowed on Kalshi and Polymarket US. "US money pours into foreign wars, lately Iran, and largely skips the elections the global crowd trades," Allium said.
That pattern highlights a split between offshore American bettors and the broader Polymarket user base. While global traders focus heavily on election contracts, US-linked wallets appear to concentrate capital on geopolitical conflict outcomes instead.
What does the Allium report mean for Polymarket regulation?
The data suggests Polymarket faces an expanding list of headaches in a sector under legal and political scrutiny. If US users continue reaching global markets despite geoblocks, regulators may question whether location controls can work at scale for decentralized prediction platforms.
Polymarket US offers a compliant domestic alternative with a narrower set of markets, but Allium's findings indicate substantial American activity remains on the global platform. For more context on crypto markets and regulatory shifts, see our Fintech & Crypto Alerts coverage.
Industry observers will watch whether Polymarket strengthens enforcement or whether offshore US participation continues to define the platform's political betting volume. The full analysis is available from CoinTelegraph, which first reported Allium's findings.