UK drought risk rises with August hot weather forecast

The UK faces rising drought risk after three heatwaves and the driest stretch in central England since 1995, though wet autumn and winter rains slowed an official drought compared with last summer. Little significant rain is due soon, and the august hot weather forecast still hints at mainly dry, warm conditions especially in the south.

Key Takeaways

• Three widespread heatwaves and a long dry spell have left England, Wales and eastern Scotland especially short of rain.
• Last summer's drought ended only four months ago; this year's aquifers were recharged by a wet autumn and winter.
• Hosepipe bans already cover millions, with 87% of English river catchments below normal to exceptionally low.
• High pressure keeps most places dry for days ahead; any weekend rain may favour Scotland and Northern Ireland.
• Longer-range signals still lean dry and warm in the south, with possible summer thunderstorms.

Is the UK already in drought this summer?

Not officially nationwide—yet the warning signs are stacking up. Rainfall for summer so far is below average across the UK, with sharp regional contrasts, according to BBC Weather.

By mid-summer on 15 July, parts of eastern and north-eastern England had received just 26% of their expected summer rainfall. Central England has seen its longest dry spell since 1995, with Wisley in Surrey logging 33 consecutive dry days.

Comparisons with last summer are inevitable. Drought was declared across much of England, Wales and eastern Scotland then, and that official status ended only four months ago. A very wet autumn and winter recharged aquifers, rivers and reservoirs, so drought has developed more slowly this year.

The UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology warns that flash droughts—with a sudden swing from wet to dry—are likely to happen more often and more intensely.

When will the rain return across Britain?

High pressure remains in charge, so most of the UK looks rain-free for at least the next few days. ITV News reports the Met Office sees little significant rainfall in the near term as the third heatwave of the year continues.

Only scattered midweek showers are possible, mainly near coasts in south-east England and East Anglia, plus northern Scotland. Weekend fronts from the north-west may bring rain to Northern Ireland and Scotland, but could fizzle before reaching the south and east that need it most.

ITV notes a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms later in July, though timing and totals remain uncertain. The spell has already driven hosepipe bans in the east of England, Cambridge, Hampshire, the Isle of Wight and parts of Kent, plus 19 wildfires this month.

How are water supplies and farms being affected?

Demand is up while river flows fall. The Environment Agency says 87% of catchments in England are now at below-normal to exceptionally low levels. In Wales, where just 5% of July rainfall has fallen, Natural Resources Wales has put the worst-hit north and south-east regions into "prolonged dry weather status."

Millions of English customers face hosepipe bans. The National Farmers' Union says growers are racing to harvest early crops, water fruit and vegetables, and care for livestock after exceptionally low spring and summer rain in the east and south—risking another difficult, expensive harvest after extreme weather in 2024 and 2025.

Heat stress is a public-health story too: scientists estimate at least 2,700 UK deaths were linked to extreme heat in May and June, ITV reports. 2026 has already set a record for days above 34C and matched 1976 for days at 30C or more.

What does the August hot weather forecast point to?

Looking beyond this week, confidence drops, but BBC Weather says there are hints the rest of summer could stay mainly dry and warm—especially in the south—while summer thunderstorms remain possible. That is the core of the august hot weather forecast signal available now: no firm drought call, but limited relief if the pattern holds.

The Met Office expects UK summers to become hotter and drier as human-driven climate change continues, with summers by 2070 potentially up to 60% drier and 1–6C warmer than 1990.

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