Tommy Paul vs Majchrzak: Tuesday tennis picks in D.C.
Tommy Paul faces Kamil Majchrzak on Tuesday, July 28 at the Mubadala DC Open in Washington as the hard-court swing toward the 2026 US Open heats up. Paul is a heavy favorite after his wedding and honeymoon, but analysts split on value—some back him in three sets, others like Majchrzak to steal a set or pull the upset.
Key Takeaways
- Tommy Paul meets Kamil Majchrzak on Day 2 of ATP Washington hard-court play.
- Their head-to-head is tied 1-1; they last met in humid Atlanta qualifying in 2019.
- VSiN backs Majchrzak +1.5 sets (+100) and Majchrzak moneyline (+310).
- Last Word On Sports predicts Paul in three sets with home-crowd help.
- Paul is returning from a wedding and honeymoon, so early sharpness is the key question.
Who is favored when Tommy Paul faces Majchrzak?
On paper, Tommy Paul is the clear class edge. VSiN notes that, all things equal, the American is a much better player than Majchrzak and opens as a big favorite at the Mubadala DC Open.
Still, the matchup is not soft. Last Word On Sports calls Majchrzak a tricky opponent with a big serve and variety around the court. The Polish player also won a significant title in ’s-Hertogenbosch last month and sits 13-12 since the start of the season, per VSiN.
That combination—Paul’s higher ceiling versus Majchrzak’s recent form—explains why Tuesday’s Washington opener is drawing so much betting attention across the early North American hard-court swing.
Why could Tommy Paul struggle after his wedding?
Both handicappers flag the same lifestyle factor. Paul is a newlywed coming back from a wedding and honeymoon, and VSiN wonders how he will adjust to life on tour again.
If he looks sluggish, VSiN argues he risks losing his usual competitive fire and grinding ability—the traits that make him dangerous in best-of-three hard-court matches. Majchrzak, an aggressive baseliner, is expected to move Paul early and mix in drop shots to test those legs.
Last Word On Sports echoes the slow-start concern but still leans on Washington’s home crowd to help Paul settle in and close out a tight contest.
What are the top betting picks for this match?
The expert board is split. According to VSiN’s Tuesday tennis best bets, the preferred angles are Majchrzak +1.5 sets at +100 (1.5 units) and Majchrzak moneyline at +310 (0.5 units), banking on at least a set—and possibly an outright upset.
Last Word On Sports goes the other way, projecting Paul in three sets after noting the 1-1 head-to-head and their last meeting in similarly humid conditions during 2019 Atlanta qualifying.
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Either way, Tommy Paul’s first hard-court test of the US Open road trip is less about ranking gaps than about rust, humidity, and whether Majchrzak can stretch the favorite into uncomfortable territory on Tuesday in Washington.