This El Nino could be the strongest on record, models say
Yes — the Pacific warming trend tagged as nio (El Nino) is on course for the strongest peak since reliable records began in 1877, with models eyeing about 3.6 C (6.5 F) above average, nearly 1 C past the prior mark, and roughly a 77% chance of a new record. That matters because a historic El Nino can dump oceanic heat into the air and rewrite winter odds from Utah to Connecticut.
Key Takeaways
- July runs from 667 ensemble members across 14 seasonal models point to a potentially record El Nino peaking late in 2026.
- Odds of a “very strong” (informally “super”) El Nino have jumped to about 81%, with a “strong” event near 97%.
- Global temperatures may hit new highs in 2027 as oceanic heat spills into the air; late 2026 could also run unusually hot.
- Typical U.S. winter tilt: wetter and cooler south, milder and drier north — but local outcomes still vary.
According to Yale Climate Connections, scientist Zeke Hausfather said the July model suite shows this year’s event is “very likely to be the strongest” since reliable records began — and possibly by a “mind-blowing margin.”
Pooled forecasts target a peak about 3.6 C warmer than average in the key Pacific monitoring region. That sits almost a full degree Celsius above the strongest events of the past 149 years. Using the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), the same analysis still gives about a 77% chance of an unprecedented peak.
How strong could this El Nino get?
ABC4 Utah reports El Nino was declared on June 11 and has strengthened quickly. Eastern Pacific waters recently ran about 1.7–2.6 C above average.
In six weeks, the chance of a “strong” event rose from 63% to 97%, while odds of a “very strong” event — often called a “super” El Nino, though that label is informal — climbed to 81%. Models lean toward a peak from late fall into early winter, with very strong conditions possible from September through February 2027.
Hausfather cautioned that no ensemble has ever forecast and then verified a 3.6 C El Nino, because none has happened. Model agreement is reassuring, he said, but not proof — even as observed ocean conditions already look extreme.
What would a record El Nino mean for U.S. winter weather?
ABC4 notes that stronger El Nino winters often soak the West Coast, Southwest, and Southeast while the Great Plains, Ohio Valley, and Northeast trend drier. Northern tiers often run milder; the Southwest and Deep South can run cooler.
For Utah, the strongest late-summer-to-winter analogs (including 1982 and 1997) often brought above-average statewide precipitation — sometimes 20–37% wetter — and some of the best mountain snowpack winters. Forecasters still stress that no two events match exactly.
In Connecticut, Brown University’s Dr. Kim Cobb told NBC Connecticut the Northeast should expect a much warmer-than-usual winter. Coastal rainfall is “more muddled,” and the strongest past El Ninos have generally produced drier Connecticut winters, even if typical El Nino seasons there are roughly a coin flip for wet versus dry.
Why does this El Nino matter beyond the weather map?
Yale Climate Connections links the event to a vast store of oceanic heat that could push planetary temperatures into new record territory in 2027 — and possibly even this year. Cobb also warned of sharper regional contrasts: floods in some places, drought in others, with agricultural and economic fallout.
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