Taylor Fritz is a heavy favorite vs Bellucci at U.S. Open
Taylor Fritz is a massive favorite over Mattia Bellucci in Thursday's U.S. Open second round on Arthur Ashe Stadium. DraftKings listed the American as high as -1080, while Polymarket priced him near 89% to win. Analysts still split on a 7.5-game spread and whether the match goes over 33.5 games.
Key Takeaways
- Taylor Fritz, the No. 9 seed and 2024 U.S. Open finalist, beat Darwin Blanch in straight sets in round one.
- Mattia Bellucci, ranked No. 95, beat Zsombor Piros 6-4, 6-2, 6-0 and is chasing a first U.S. Open third round.
- Moneyline prices range from -901 at bet365 to -1080 at DraftKings, with Bellucci as long as +620.
- Fritz leads 1-0 after a 5-7, 7-5, 7-5 win at Stuttgart's BOSS Open on June 12, 2026.
- Picks split: Sports Illustrated likes Over 33.5 games; Sports Betting Dime backs Fritz -7.5 and Under 36.5.
Who is favored when Taylor Fritz faces Bellucci?
The American is the clear pick to reach the third round. Sports Illustrated listed Fritz at -1080 and Bellucci at +620. Sports Betting Dime cited bet365 prices of -901 and +550 as of Sept. 2, 2026.
The match is set for 1 p.m. ET on Arthur Ashe Stadium, with ESPN on television. Fritz is the No. 9 seed in the draw. Sports Betting Dime also lists him at No. 10 in the world rankings, against Bellucci at No. 95.
Fritz opened with a straight-sets win over fellow American Darwin Blanch. Bellucci, a left-hander, advanced 6-4, 6-2, 6-0 over Zsombor Piros. RotoGrinders noted he is still working back from a knee issue that cost him Wimbledon this summer, though he has said he feels physically sound.
What do the odds and prediction markets say?
Polymarket priced Fritz around 89 cents to win outright and Bellucci around 12%. The most likely exact score there was Fritz 3-0 at 54%, then 3-1 at 27% and 3-2 at 13%. Bellucci-win contracts sat near 5% to 6%.
A Fritz -7.5 games spread is on sportsbooks and prediction markets. Chris Amberley at Sports Betting Dime backed Fritz -7.5 at +110 at bet365. He cited Tennis Abstract hard-court Elo of 1,888.6 for Fritz versus 1,672.8 for Bellucci, plus Fritz's 9-2 hard-court mark since late July against Bellucci's 3-3 since mid-August.
Totals differ by shop. Peter Dewey of Sports Illustrated picked Over 33.5 games (-120 at DraftKings) because the pair played 36 games in three sets at the BOSS Open. Amberley paired the spread with Under 36.5 games, arguing Fritz's serve can end it in straight sets. Polymarket's Over 32.5 sat near even money at 54 cents.
RotoGrinders' editor pick was Fritz 3-0. That board had softened Fritz covering -7.5 by five percentage points and cut his Set 1 winner price by 18 points, while the moneyline stayed near 89%. For more on how those contract prices move, see BlasterPost's Fintech & Crypto Alerts.
How have they matched up, and what is the pick?
Their only previous meeting was June 12, 2026, at ATP Stuttgart, also known as the BOSS Open. Fritz won 5-7, 7-5, 7-5 with 11 aces to Bellucci's nine. He converted two of nine break points, held 17 of 18 service games, and won 114 of 216 points.
Fritz is 31-15 in 2026, including 20-10 on hard courts, with three straight U.S. Open quarterfinals. Bellucci is 10-16 overall and 4-9 on hard courts. He has reached the U.S. Open second round in each of the last three years and has one Grand Slam third-round appearance, at 2025 Wimbledon.
Amberley pointed to Fritz winning 88.7% of service games versus 82.1%, 79.4% of first-serve points versus 72.9%, and about 1.04 aces per game versus 0.54. Dewey still said Bellucci can steal a set, noting Fritz's first-round French Open loss this year. According to Sports Illustrated, Over 33.5 is the totals play if a set goes long. Books treat the winner as settled; the argument is how many games Bellucci can take.