Supply absorption key question as Bitcoin stalls near $80K
Bitcoin has failed to reclaim lasting support near $80,000 because all investor cohorts are back in profit, raising the supply absorption key question: can new demand soak up selling from profitable holders? CryptoQuant says US spot ETF inflows and a positive Coinbase premium would be the clearest signals that buyers can absorb that supply.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin remains sensitive to sell-side pressure around $80,000 even as broad mass profit-taking is still limited.
- CryptoQuant data show unrealized profit and loss above zero for all holder cohorts, which can slow upward momentum.
- Long-term holder SOPR spiked to 1.48 on Aug. 22, while short-term holders still drive most in-profit onchain moves.
- The Coinbase premium sat at -0.015 on Wednesday, underscoring weak US spot demand despite the rebound.
- Analysts frame the next step as whether new demand—including spot Bitcoin ETF inflows—can absorb selling from profitable holders.
For more market alerts, follow BlasterPost’s Fintech & Crypto Alerts hub. The latest read from Cointelegraph centers on CryptoQuant’s onchain view of the stalled reclaim.
Why is supply absorption the key question near $80K?
Bitcoin struggled to establish support at $80,000 after a sharp rebound. CryptoQuant says every major investor cohort has returned to net profitability on aggregate.
That shift matters because profitable holders can become sellers. Cointelegraph’s analysis notes BTC remains sensitive to sell-side pressure at that level even while investors broadly avoid mass profit-taking.
CryptoQuant’s summary is blunt: the key question is not whether Bitcoin can briefly touch $80,000, but whether new demand can absorb selling from profitable holders. That demand could come from renewed inflows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
What do onchain profit metrics show right now?
Older coins moved onchain as BTC/USD gained more than 25% over the past week, according to CryptoQuant. The spent output profit ratio, or SOPR, ticked up to 1.48 on Aug. 22, pointing to more activity in coins that were already in profit.
As price consolidated around $79,500, the SOPR ratio—short-term holder SOPR divided by long-term holder SOPR—hit 1.4, its highest reading since July 25. Short-term holders are wallets that hold BTC for up to six months; long-term holders keep coins longer than six months.
CryptoQuant said that reading suggested long-term holders were realizing profits at a higher relative rate than short-term holders. The ratio later fell to 0.93, indicating short-term holders’ realized performance had become relatively stronger.
The SOPR ratio has been in a broad downtrend since early 2025. At the end of June it hit 0.62, its lowest level in three years, as BTC/USD dropped to $58,000. Despite a modest rebound, price has still failed to stay above $80,000.
Is US demand strong enough to absorb the supply?
Other CryptoQuant data suggest Bitcoin has not yet pulled the broader investor base back in. The Coinbase premium—the difference between Coinbase and Binance BTC prices—remains negative.
It briefly moved above zero on hourly charts as price broke above $78,500, then failed to hold. As of Wednesday it measured -0.015, improved from -0.094 at the start of August but still below the zero line that would signal firmer US demand.
CryptoQuant said the next key signal is whether the premium can cross above zero and stay positive. If Bitcoin keeps recovering while that happens, the market could shift from easing selling pressure to renewed US spot demand—answering the supply absorption key question with buying power, not just a brief $80,000 print.