Strong El Niño is now virtually certain, forecasters say
NOAA forecasters say a strong El Niño is now virtually certain in 2026, with a 97% chance it reaches strong or very strong levels by December and an 81% chance of very strong status — nio weather shifts that could bring a wetter-than-normal California winter, higher flood and landslide risks, and amplified heat on land and at sea.
Federal scientists updated their outlook Thursday as Pacific sea-surface temperatures keep climbing. For California, strong El Niños significantly tilt winter odds toward heavier Southern California rainfall — though history shows the connection is not guaranteed. Follow more Streaming & TV Alerts for breaking coverage.
Key Takeaways
- NOAA puts a 97% probability on El Niño being strong or very strong through December 2026, with an 81% chance of very strong status.
- Southern California faces increased odds of above-average winter rainfall, flash floods, and landslides, especially in wildfire burn scars.
- During three of four very strong El Niños, downtown Los Angeles saw well above-average rain; two events more than doubled typical yearly totals.
- Marine heat waves off the California coast are expected to persist longer because of El Niño, compounding land and ocean heat risks.
- Forecasters expect El Niño to continue through early spring 2027, with ripple effects on hurricane season and global weather.
How strong is this year's El Niño expected to get?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center said Thursday there is a 97% chance El Niño will be either strong or very strong over the three-month period ending in December. There is an 81% chance it will reach the very strong tier — among the most intense events tracked since 1950.
Michelle L'Heureux, lead forecaster for the government's El Niño updates, noted that a section of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters in June was the fourth-warmest on record for that month. The warm pool in the western equatorial Pacific is expanding farther east.
The Washington Post's interactive tracker lets readers follow how extreme this year's event could become as models update.
What does El Niño mean for California this winter?
For Southern California, a strong El Niño significantly increases the odds of above-average rainfall during winter. NOAA says the pattern typically shifts the jet stream farther south, potentially steering more storms toward the region.
During three of the four very strong El Niños in the global record, downtown Los Angeles received significantly more rain than average. In 1982–83 and 1997–98, downtown L.A. got more than double its usual yearly rainfall. But during the last very strong El Niño in 2015–16, downtown received only about half its typical annual total.
The strong El Niño winter of 2023–24 brought well-above-average rainfall across coastal Southern California and slightly above-normal precipitation along the northern coast, while interior areas including the Sierra Nevada saw below-normal totals.
Could California see more flooding, landslides, and heat?
Officials warn that increased winter precipitation could raise the risk of flash flooding, mudslides, and landslides, particularly in Southern California areas scarred by recent wildfires. Hundreds of landslides were reported around Los Angeles County during the last strong El Niño winter.
El Niño is also associated with higher-than-average temperatures on land and in the ocean, increasing heat-wave likelihood on top of human-caused global warming. A marine heat wave off Southern California is expected to persist longer because of El Niño, with warmer waters likely expanding farther up the coast later this summer or fall, according to NOAA research oceanographer Andrew Leising.
Beyond California, forecasters told the Los Angeles Times that El Niño typically brings wetter winter conditions across the southern United States while drying out the Pacific Northwest. In the Atlantic, El Niño's influence through the 2026 hurricane season is expected to suppress storm development.
How long will El Niño conditions last?
Current outlooks point to a 97% chance that El Niño will continue through early spring 2027. That extended duration means California and much of the southern U.S. could face a winter unlike the relatively tranquil 2025–26 season, with stormier and wetter patterns possible well into the traditionally drier months.