Spain vs Austria prediction tips and odds for World Cup 2026
Spain are heavy favourites in Thursday's World Cup 2026 Round of 32 spain austria clash at Los Angeles Stadium (8pm BST, BBC One). TNT Sports tips Spain to win to nil and a 2-0 scoreline, while Sporting Life backs Pedri for an assist and Arnautovic to be carded after La Roja's double injury setback.
Key Takeaways
- Spain are generally around 1/3 to win in 90 minutes and 1/8 to qualify, per Sporting Life.
- TNT Sports predicts Spain 2-0 and Spain to win to nil at 1.67.
- Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino are ruled out through injury ahead of kick-off.
- Sporting Life tips Pedri 1+ assist at 7/2 and Marko Arnautovic to be carded at 11/2.
- The winner faces Portugal or Croatia in the last 16, TNT Sports reports.
Why are Spain favourites against Austria?
Spain topped Group H with seven points and three consecutive clean sheets at the 2026 World Cup, reinforcing their status among the tournament favourites. Luis de la Fuente's side have not conceded a goal this summer and have the lowest expected-goals tally of any nation at 0.5, according to Sporting Life.
Austria finished second in Group J behind Argentina with four points, scoring six goals but conceding six — including three in a dramatic 3-3 draw with Algeria. TNT Sports notes Austria failed to score against Argentina, the only elite-level opponent they faced in the group stage.
Spain have not lost in 34 matches, which helps explain why bookmakers price them around 1/3 for a 90-minute win. For more offbeat tournament angles, see our Bizarre World coverage.
Who is missing from Spain's lineup?
Spain have been rocked by a double injury blow before the Austria tie. Nico Williams, a scorer in the Euro 2024 final, is ruled out after an injury sustained in the Group H win over Uruguay. Crystal Palace midfielder Yeremy Pino is also sidelined amid fears of a fractured collarbone that would end his World Cup.
The Evening Standard reports neither player was set to start, so Luis de la Fuente may avoid wholesale changes. Alex Baena is expected to benefit from Williams' absence, with Lamine Yamal and Mikel Oyarzabal leading the attack.
The predicted Spain XI is: Simon; Llorente, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri; Lamine Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal. Doubt remains over Munoz.
What are the best Spain vs Austria betting tips?
TNT Sports backs Spain to win to nil at 1.67 and a correct score of Spain 2-0. Their analysts argue Spain's defence has conceded just four shots from inside the box across three group games, while Austria struggled to break down Argentina.
Sporting Life offers two alternative angles. Pedri to register 1+ assist at 7/2 appeals because Austria have not kept a clean sheet, conceding five, and Rangnick's gegenpressing style should create chances. Pedri has six key passes and ranks third for expected assists per 90 (0.58) but is yet to record an assist.
Marko Arnautovic to be carded at 11/2 is their other pick. Spain lead the tournament for average possession at 69.4%, meaning Austria's striker will do defensive work — and Arnautovic was booked in Austria's last outing. Full team news is detailed by the Evening Standard.
What happens if Spain beat Austria?
The knockout bracket adds context beyond this single fixture. TNT Sports reports the Spain-Austria winner will face Portugal or Croatia in the last 16 — a potential blockbuster if Cristiano Ronaldo's side advance.
Sporting Life notes Spain's outright odds have drifted from 9/2 joint favourites to 17/2, behind France and Argentina, partly because a win on Thursday likely sets up a path through Portugal, Belgium and France. Austria, contesting a World Cup knockout tie for the first time since 1982, face a steep task against Europe's reigning champions.