SpaceX stock: AI rebound, Starbase, and the IPO reset

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) has fallen back to its June 2026 IPO price near $135 after briefly hitting $225.64, even as Q2 AI revenue surged 92% year over year to $7.8 billion. Morgan Stanley calls that reset a unique buying opportunity, while The Motley Fool warns a $1,000 stake may look similar by 2027 until SpaceX proves a durable AI moat.

SpaceX went public in June 2026 at $135 per share and quickly became one of the most talked-about listings in markets. Early buyers saw a wild ride: shares surged to an all-time high of $225.64 within days, then slid back to the IPO price by late August. That volatility is exactly why wealth-focused investors are revisiting the story now — not for launch hype alone, but for what the numbers say about AI infrastructure, big-ticket expansion, and whether the stock still offers upside.

Key Takeaways

• SpaceX reported Q2 2026 revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year, driven mainly by its AI segment after slower growth in prior years.
• Major AI customers include Google, which agreed to pay about $920 million per month for access to 110,000 Nvidia GPUs through June 2029, and Anthropic, which may use up to 300 megawatts from SpaceX's Colossus facility in Tennessee.
• Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas sees a "unique opportunity" to revisit SPCX near its IPO price, citing momentum across space, connectivity, and enterprise AI plus a planned $100 billion Starbase expansion in Louisiana.
• The Motley Fool estimates a $1,000 investment could be worth roughly the same by the end of 2027, calling the stock a hold until SpaceX demonstrates a lasting competitive edge in AI infrastructure.
• With a price-to-sales ratio near 64 and Q2 capital spending of $18.4 billion, SpaceX needs sustained hypergrowth to justify its valuation.

Why Did SpaceX Stock Surge and Then Fall After Its IPO?

SpaceX's post-IPO trading has been anything but smooth. According to The Motley Fool, the stock behaved "more like an amusement park ride" than a steady rocket climb — surging within days of its June debut, then giving back those gains.

Shares jumped from the $135 IPO price to $225.64 within days, rewarding early momentum traders. Since then, the stock has retraced those gains and traded back near the offering price. Business Insider reported that Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas described that pullback as a chance for investors to "revisit" SPCX with stronger fundamentals than at the initial pop.

Jonas, a long-standing Elon Musk bull who also covers Tesla, argued that Wall Street still underappreciates what he called the opportunity of "rockets on the bayou" — SpaceX's plan to spend $100 billion on a new Starbase launch facility in Vermilion Parish, Louisiana. Construction is scheduled to begin in 2027, with the first launches targeted for 2029.

How Is SpaceX's AI Business Changing Its Investment Story?

Before its IPO, SpaceX's growth narrative looked shaky. Private-market research firm Sacra showed revenue growth slowing from 100% year over year in 2022 to just 18% by 2025, as The Motley Fool noted. The company's acquisition of xAI had struck some observers as a distraction from weakening core space operations.

Second-quarter 2026 earnings flipped that script. Revenue rebounded to 92% year-over-year growth, reaching $7.8 billion, with the AI segment — spanning cutting-edge computing infrastructure and the Grok frontier model — doing the heavy lifting.

SpaceX is leasing massive data-center capacity to other tech giants. Anthropic signed on for up to 300 megawatts from the Colossus site in Tennessee, and the two companies are studying whether orbiting data centers are feasible, though The Motley Fool flagged that idea as highly speculative.

Google's deal is even larger in dollar terms: roughly $920 million per month for 110,000 Nvidia graphics processing units and related AI infrastructure from October 2026 through June 2029. Either party can terminate under the agreement's terms, adding a layer of revenue uncertainty investors should weigh.

For readers tracking wealth hacks and passive income strategies, these contracts matter because they transform SpaceX from a pure-play rocket company into an AI infrastructure landlord — a very different risk and reward profile.

What Does the $100 Billion Starbase Expansion Mean for Investors?

SpaceX's Louisiana Starbase plan represents one of the largest capital commitments in the company's history. Business Insider reported that Morgan Stanley believes investors do not fully appreciate the scale of what SpaceX is planning, and that the facility could become a fresh catalyst for the stock.

Jonas wrote that momentum across Space, Connectivity, and Enterprise AI is arguably stronger now than at the IPO, even with shares sitting near the offering price. That is a bullish framing — but it assumes SpaceX can execute on a buildout whose price tag dwarfs most public companies' entire market values.

The Motley Fool raised a counterpoint: Q2 capital expenditures totaled $18.4 billion, and keeping pace with hyperscale rivals like Amazon — which expects roughly $220 billion in 2026 capex — would require spending to climb much further. Investors already nervous about burn rates may hesitate even if launch cadence and AI leasing look impressive on paper.

Is a $1,000 SpaceX Investment Likely to Grow by 2027?

That is the headline question The Motley Fool set out to answer — and its conclusion is cautious. Despite the AI rebound, SpaceX traded at a price-to-sales multiple of about 64, meaning the market is pricing in years of extraordinary growth.

The Motley Fool's base case: a $1,000 position bought near current levels could be worth about the same by the end of 2027. The firm rates the stock a hold until SpaceX shows a durable economic moat in AI infrastructure, not just near-term leasing wins.

Concerns include stiff competition from established cloud hyperscalers with deep capital, expertise, and existing customer relationships. Orbital data centers, while intriguing, remain decades away if feasible at all, with obstacles ranging from space debris to extreme temperatures and maintenance challenges on orbit.

Morgan Stanley's view is more optimistic on timing. Jonas told investors that post-IPO struggles may signal a chance to get in near the offering price just as fundamentals across space, connectivity, and enterprise AI are accelerating — a stark contrast to The Motley Fool's wait-and-see stance.

Should You Buy SpaceX Stock Now?

There is no one-size-fits-all answer. Morgan Stanley sees a rare entry point after the post-IPO slide, with Starbase Louisiana adding a potential catalyst. The Motley Fool, meanwhile, wants proof that AI revenue is defensible before upgrading from hold.

Notably, The Motley Fool Stock Advisor team did not include Space Exploration Technologies among its top 10 stock picks — a detail worth noting for followers of that service who weigh model-portfolio guidance alongside headline-grabbing IPOs.

For deeper context on the AI-driven revenue surge and customer contracts, see Yahoo Finance's Motley Fool analysis and Business Insider's Morgan Stanley coverage.

SpaceX's story in 2026 is no longer just about reusable rockets and Starlink dishes. It is about whether a company that rents Nvidia-powered compute to Google and Anthropic can also fund a $100 billion launch complex — and whether public shareholders near $135 are early or simply along for another amusement-park ride.