Sho Shimabukuro US Open picks: Sunday's top tennis bets
If you are hunting Sho Shimabukuro US Open picks on Sunday, August 30, VSiN and Last Word On Sports steer bettors toward other Day 1 matchups with clearer value, led by Cameron Norrie -1.5 sets, Toby Samuel on the moneyline, Sebastian Gorzny to win a set, and Terence Atmane to win outright. All four plays target first-round matchups at Flushing Meadows where form, head-to-head history, and injury flags align with the handicappers' models.
Key Takeaways
- VSiN backs Cameron Norrie -1.5 sets (-110) over Luca Van Assche on hard courts.
- Toby Samuel moneyline (-138 per VSiN) targets Tomas Machac's injury rust and 15-13 season mark.
- Sebastian Gorzny to win a set (+102) offers value against Raphael Collignon's shaky hard-court form.
- Last Word On Sports favors Terence Atmane moneyline over Jaume Munar with 6/10 confidence.
- Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston earns a stay-away rating despite Gaston +2.5 sets as a hedge.
Which US Open Pick Does VSiN Like Most on Sunday?
VSiN's top Day 1 call is Cameron Norrie -1.5 sets (-110) against Luca Van Assche. Norrie is 7-3 on hard courts since the grass season, with competitive losses to Denis Shapovalov, Arthur Fils, and Alexander Zverev. Van Assche is 26-6 in Challengers and 9-7 at ATP level but has dropped three straight main-draw hard-court matches.
Norrie leads their career series 3-1 and posts superior TennisViz metrics, including a 7.39 Performance Rating versus Van Assche's 6.73 over the past 52 weeks. VSiN expects Norrie's return game and rally tolerance to grind out a win in four sets or fewer. Full analysis is at VSiN.
Why Is Toby Samuel a Live Underdog Against Tomas Machac?
Both handicappers converge on Samuel. Machac lost 6-2, 7-6 (1) to Mees Rottgering in Winston-Salem and fell in straight sets to Pablo Carreno Busta in Cincinnati, extending a rough 15-13 season after a Roland-Garros injury limited his grass-court play. Last Word On Sports assigns this match a 1/10 confidence score because of lingering injury questions but still lists Samuel moneyline as the best available wager.
VSiN notes Samuel is 24-8 at Challenger level this year with aggressive groundstrokes and net instincts that could disrupt Machac's rhythm. The Brit is priced at -138 on the moneyline, and VSiN allocated 1.5 units to the play.
Should You Bet Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston?
Last Word On Sports urges caution here. Medvedev is a 1.15 favorite despite going 1-4 in his last five matches, while Gaston is 4-1 over the same stretch. Medvedev also lost immediately in Winston-Salem after poor showings in Canada and Cincinnati. The site rates confidence at 1/10 and recommends staying away.
If you insist on action, Last Word On Sports points to Gaston +2.5 sets at 2.05 as the least risky angle against an out-of-form favorite. For more tournament context, see our Celebrity Breaking News hub.
What Other Day 1 Bets Stand Out at the US Open?
VSiN likes Sebastian Gorzny to win a set (+102) against Raphael Collignon, citing Collignon's three straight hard-court losses since Wimbledon and reliance on big ball-striking when form is off. Gorzny's serve and plus-one game should keep sets competitive.
Last Word On Sports backs Terence Atmane moneyline (1.61 at Pinnacle) over Jaume Munar. Atmane reached the third round in Montreal and Cincinnati and beat Jack Draper, while Munar is 4-5 on hard courts with limited summer activity. The outlet rates this match 6/10 confidence, its highest among Sunday's featured plays.