Shintaro Mochizuki stuns Jodar to set Sinner clash at Wimbledon
Shintaro Mochizuki, ranked World No. 151, upset 23rd seed Rafael Jodar 1-6, 7-6(5), 6-4, 6-4 on Friday at Wimbledon to reach the fourth round for the first time at a major. The 23-year-old Japanese qualifier now faces defending champion Jannik Sinner on Centre Court Sunday.
Key Takeaways
- Mochizuki beat Jodar in three hours on Court 18 after dropping the opening set.
- He is the fourth Japanese man in the Open Era to reach a Grand Slam round of 16.
- Sinner vs Mochizuki is scheduled on Centre Court during Sunday's 1:30 p.m. BST session.
- Betting markets list Sinner as a heavy favorite at -4500 on DraftKings.
Why did Shintaro Mochizuki's upset over Rafael Jodar matter?
Friday's result was the biggest win of Mochizuki's career and his first trip beyond the third round at any major. The ATP Tour reported that he arrived at Wimbledon without a tour-level victory this season, then fought through three qualifying rounds before beating British qualifier Max Basing and American Ethan Quinn in straight sets.
By toppling Jodar, Mochizuki joined a short list of Japanese men to reach the singles round of 16 in the Open Era, alongside Kei Nishikori, Yoshihito Nishioka and Shuzo Matsuoka. Minutes after his win, Sinner advanced past Jenson Brooksby 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 on Court 1 to book the last-16 meeting.
How did Mochizuki win despite losing the first set?
In their first Lexus ATP Head2Head meeting, Jodar pushed hard throughout the three-hour contest on Court 18. Mochizuki recovered after a 1-6 opening set, took the second in a 7-6(5) tiebreak, and closed out 6-4, 6-4.
According to the ATP Tour, he converted seven of 19 break points and won 71 percent of points behind his first serve. Jodar, making his Wimbledon main-draw debut, had been on a breakthrough run that included a first major quarter-final at Roland Garros, a title in Marrakech and back-to-back Masters 1000 quarter-finals in Madrid and Rome.
When and where will Sinner face Mochizuki at Wimbledon?
Sky Sports lists Sunday's Centre Court order of play beginning at 1:30 p.m. BST, with Roman Safiullin vs Novak Djokovic and Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka also on the card before Jannik Sinner meets Shintaro Mochizuki. Action Network projects an approximate 12 p.m. ET start on ESPN Unlmtd.
For fans tracking the tournament's stranger storylines, more coverage lives in our Bizarre World section. A win would put Mochizuki one match from a Wimbledon quarter-final; for Sinner, it is another step toward defending the title as World No. 1.
What do the odds say about Sinner vs Mochizuki?
Action Network lists DraftKings moneyline odds of -4500 for Sinner and +1600 for Mochizuki, with a total games line of 28.5. Its model gives Sinner a 96 percent win probability, though analysts flagged value on Sinner -8.5 at the alternate spread (-200) and the under 28.5 (-130) rather than the straight moneyline.
The gap reflects form and pedigree, but Mochizuki's grass run already defied expectations. Whether his break-point pressure and first-serve numbers can trouble the defending champion will be answered on one of Wimbledon's biggest stages.