Roddick: Sinner stays US Open favourite if Alcaraz returns
DIRECT ANSWER: Former US Open champion Andy Roddick says Jannik Sinner remains the overwhelming favourite to win the 2026 US Open even if Carlos Alcaraz returns from wrist surgery. On his Served podcast, the tennis head argued Alcaraz lacks the match reps to immediately reclaim his best form in New York.
Roddick's verdict landed days after Sinner defended his Wimbledon title, his fifth Grand Slam, while Alcaraz has been sidelined since injuring his wrist at the Barcelona Open in April. With the North American hard-court swing beginning and Flushing Meadows scheduled for late August, the debate over who owns New York has turned into the summer's sharpest tennis storyline.
Key Takeaways
- Andy Roddick calls Sinner the overwhelming US Open favourite even if Alcaraz plays.
- Alcaraz has not competed since April and is skipping the Canadian Open.
- Polymarket traders price Sinner near 56%, roughly four times Alcaraz's share.
- Sinner and Alcaraz have won nine of the last ten Grand Slam titles between them.
- Zverev, Medvedev and Shelton remain the most credible third-party threats.
What did Andy Roddick say about Sinner's US Open chances?
Speaking on the Served with Andy Roddick podcast after Sinner's Wimbledon triumph, the 2003 US Open winner did not hedge. "Sinner still has to be an overwhelming favourite in New York even if Alcaraz comes back," he said, according to Tennis World USA.
Roddick acknowledged how much the sport misses its Spanish star, noting Alcaraz has been working through rehab and even posted practice footage. Still, he questioned whether the legs and rhythm would be there for a deep run. "You need match reps," Roddick added. "It's not as if he re-enters the building and all of a sudden he is the best version of Carlos Alcaraz."
Why does Alcaraz's comeback not shift the favourite tag?
Alcaraz is the defending US Open champion and beat Sinner in last year's Cincinnati and New York finals. But he has missed Roland Garros and Wimbledon while recovering, and reports indicate he will not play the Canadian Open that opens the summer hard-court swing.
Roddick stressed that winning a major after months away is a different assignment. He said he hopes Alcaraz recovers quickly because "the Sinner story is just better with Alcaraz in the mix," yet he believes Sinner arrives on his preferred surface in peak competitive shape after a season of high-level match play.
Do prediction markets back Roddick's read?
Yes, and by a wide margin. CryptoSlate's July 13 analysis of the Polymarket contract for the 2026 US Open listed Jannik Sinner at 56.5%, Carlos Alcaraz at 12%, Alexander Zverev at 7.8%, and Novak Djokovic at 5.8%, with roughly 2.91 million dollars in trading volume.
That pricing frames the tournament less as an open draw and more as a referendum on whether Sinner can extend his hard-court dominance through a long runway to an event running August 23 through September 13. Alcaraz's lower implied probability reflects the same match-rep concern Roddick raised on air.
Who else could break up the Sinner-Alcaraz duopoly?
Even with Alcaraz absent, the tour has not been a two-man procession. Gulf News notes that Sinner and Alcaraz have claimed nine of the last ten majors, but Alexander Zverev interrupted that run by winning the 2026 French Open and reaching his first Wimbledon final.
Daniil Medvedev, a former US Open champion, Ben Shelton and Felix Auger-Aliassime are also names in the conversation, though none currently carry market odds close to the top two. Roddick suggested a rusty Alcaraz return could also open lanes for Zverev and Djokovic in New York. For more offbeat sports angles, browse our Bizarre World coverage.