Reds host Cardinals in Thursday rubber match at GABP
The Cincinnati Reds host the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday afternoon at Great American Ball Park in a five-game series rubber match, with first pitch at 12:40 p.m. ET. Brady Singer starts for the Reds against Michael McGreevy, as St. Louis sits at 65-63 and Cincinnati at 61-66 after Wednesday’s 5-4 Reds win.
Key Takeaways
- Thursday’s rubber match closes a rare five-game series at Great American Ball Park, first pitch 12:40 p.m. ET (11:40 a.m. CT).
- Brady Singer (5-11, 4.66 ERA) faces Michael McGreevy (5-9, 3.48 ERA); the Cardinals lead the season series 7-5.
- St. Louis is a slight -112 money-line favorite; the Reds are -104, with the over/under set at 9 runs.
- A SportsLine model that ran 10,000 simulations favors the Under, projecting about 8.3 total runs.
- After a Monday doubleheader split, St. Louis won Tuesday and Cincinnati took Wednesday 5-4.
What is at stake for the Reds on Thursday?
The Reds enter at 61-66, wrapping a long home set against a Cardinals club that is 65-63 and still chasing an NL wild-card spot. CBS Sports notes the series split after Monday’s doubleheader, a St. Louis win Tuesday, and Cincinnati’s 5-4 victory Wednesday—leaving Thursday as the decider.
Viva El Birdos frames the afternoon as the final Cincinnati stop on St. Louis’s road trip, with the broadcast available on Cardinals.tv. Singer gets the ball for the home side opposite McGreevy.
How did earlier games in this series shape the matchup?
Context from Monday’s opener helps explain the tone of the week. In Game 1 of the Aug. 17 doubleheader, the Cardinals edged the Reds 2-1. Alec Burleson’s first-inning two-run double scored Joshua Báez and Iván Herrera, and St. Louis’s bullpen closed it out, per ESPN’s recap.
Dane Myers supplied Cincinnati’s lone run with a fourth-inning homer. Relievers Luis Gastelum, Gordon Graceffo, and George Soriano worked perfect frames before Riley O’Brien struck out the side for his NL-leading 31st save. That early series win, plus the midweek trade of results, sets up a true rubber game.
What do the odds and simulation model say about the Reds?
Latest lines list the Cardinals at -112 and the Reds at -104, with a 9-run total and a Cardinals -1.5 run line at +144. SportsLine’s projection model—highlighted in coverage that also sits alongside Future Tech & AI Wonders style simulation chatter—ran the game 10,000 times and leaned Under 9, hitting in 59% of sims with a 8.3-run forecast.
Supporting that lean: the Under is 9-5 in the last 14 meetings, and St. Louis owns baseball’s second-best Under rate this season (70-50-7). When McGreevy starts, the total has stayed under in 66% of his 24 outings. Singer, meanwhile, owns a 2.28 ERA over his last five starts versus the Cardinals and a .193 batting average against St. Louis—his fourth-lowest mark versus any team.
Fans following the Reds will watch whether Singer’s recent divisional form or McGreevy’s under-friendly profile decides a tight, model-watched Thursday finale.