Quentin Halys vs Zverev odds for US Open second round
Top seed Alexander Zverev is a heavy favorite over Quentin Halys in Thursday's U.S. Open second round, priced near -650 on the moneyline while Halys sits around +431. Markets and analysts lean toward a Zverev win after he already beat the Frenchman twice in 2026, though fatigue from a five-set opener remains the main risk.
Key Takeaways
- Quentin Halys enters as a large underdog after his first U.S. Open second-round berth.
- Zverev leads the 2026 head-to-head 2-0 following Miami and Roland Garros wins.
- Sportsbooks list Zverev near -650; Polymarket prices him around 84% to win.
- Analysts split between Zverev -1.5 sets and a straight-sets 3-0 score play.
- Both players arrive off long openers, keeping game totals and spreads tighter than the moneyline.
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Who is favored when Quentin Halys meets Zverev?
Quentin Halys is a massive underdog against No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev on Arthur Ashe Stadium. According to Sports Illustrated, moneyline prices sat at Zverev -650 and Halys +431, with a 38.5-game total.
Oddschecker similarly framed Zverev as roughly -650 and Halys near +450 ahead of a Thursday night slot on ESPN. Action Network's Polymarket board priced Zverev at 84¢ (about 84%) to win outright, with Halys at 16¢.
The Frenchman finally cleared the U.S. Open first round after five straight opening exits, beating Facundo Díaz Acosta in four sets. That breakthrough still leaves him facing a favorite with deep Flushing Meadows history, including a 2020 runner-up finish.
Why do prediction markets still see risk for Zverev?
Zverev needed four hours and 53 minutes to escape Lorenzo Sonego in five sets, 6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 7-5, 6-4. Oddschecker noted he trailed two sets to one and was within two points of an upset before closing out the match.
That marathon, which Action Network said finished around 1:55 a.m., fuels fatigue concerns heading into Round 2. Halys also showed enough serve to keep sets competitive, winning 82% of first-serve points and holding 19 of 21 service games in his opener.
On Polymarket, Zverev to win by over 5.5 games hovered near a coin flip, while over 35.5 games traded around 66¢. Exact-score markets priced a Zverev 3-0 at 44¢, a 3-1 at 29¢, and longer Halys upset paths in single digits.
What is the best pick for Quentin Halys vs Zverev?
Sports Illustrated's published pick was Zverev -1.5 sets at -250 on DraftKings, arguing there is little moneyline value at -650. Oddschecker preferred Zverev to win 3-0 sets at +125, expecting a sharper bounce-back response.
Action Network's editor's pick mirrored the straight-sets angle on Polymarket, buying Zverev wins 3-0 at 44¢. Independent models cited there projected about an 82–83% Zverev win probability, close to the moneyline market.
Head-to-head context backs the favorite: Zverev won 7-6, 7-6 in Miami and 6-4, 6-3, 5-7, 6-2 at the French Open, where Halys took only one of six sets across their 2026 meetings. Halys remains dangerous on serve, but Zverev has closed the high-pressure points in both prior clashes.
Match window reports clustered around 8:10–8:30 p.m. ET Thursday, September 3, on ESPN. For traders watching event contracts alongside sportsbook lines, Halys's underdog price reflects both Zverev's ranking edge and the lingering physical hangover from Round 1.