A quantum roadmap would push Bitcoin much higher: Edwards
A quantum roadmap would push Bitcoin much higher and could lift prices by “double digits” very quickly, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards told Cointelegraph, arguing that a clear Core plan to harden cryptography against quantum attacks would discount much of that risk almost overnight.
Speaking on Trade Secrets, Edwards said Bitcoin developers should outline concrete steps to defend the network, calling the unresolved quantum threat a surprisingly bullish catalyst once a plan appears. For more Fintech & Crypto Alerts, follow BlasterPost’s market coverage.
Key Takeaways
- Edwards expects a Core quantum roadmap to spark a “double digits” Bitcoin price move very quickly.
- He estimates quantum risk already discounts Bitcoin by about 30%, leaving the market skewed to the upside if a plan lands.
- He wants developers to announce rough steps within months toward a roughly two-year fix.
- BlackRock has flagged quantum computing as a long-term risk in spot Bitcoin ETF materials.
- Ethereum aims to finish a post-quantum overhaul by 2029, raising pressure on Bitcoin before 2030.
Why would a quantum roadmap push Bitcoin higher?
Edwards argues fear that powerful quantum computers could one day break Bitcoin’s cryptography and compromise wallets has weighed on sentiment. Some analysts even link that uncertainty to recent price weakness.
In a Cointelegraph Magazine interview, he said that if Bitcoin Core states in two or three months that it will solve the issue in the next two years and lists rough steps, “that would be amazing news” and would “discount a lot of the risk pretty much overnight.”
Other chains have already published quantum roadmaps. Edwards said Bitcoin Improvement Proposals so far are “not really” a genuine solution, so a credible plan could flip today’s risk into an upside catalyst.
How large is the quantum discount in Bitcoin’s price?
Edwards estimates Bitcoin is about 40% below his energy-value fair value and that quantum risk accounts for roughly a 30% discount—meaning the threat is “more than priced in” on current information.
At publication, Bitcoin traded near $65,270, about 49% below its October all-time high of $126,100. He bases the risk window on expert timelines for “Q Day,” when quantum machines could reverse-engineer private keys from public keys, which he puts in a four-to-five-year range, give or take a few years.
BIP-360 author Ethan Heilman has estimated that developing and deploying a fix could take years. Edwards warned the discount could worsen if a major lab suddenly looks further ahead on Q Day—but he still sees probabilities skewed more to the upside from here.
What would Bitcoin developers need to announce?
Community debate remains intense. Some worry major cryptographic changes clash with Bitcoin’s ethos; others say quantum machines are years away and a rushed cure could be worse than the disease.
Edwards, who founded Capriole Investments in Melbourne in 2019 and often flags the risk to his 132,800 X followers, wants a public roadmap rather than silence. Observers also note rising scrutiny if Bitcoin fails to adapt before 2030, especially once Ethereum completes its planned post-quantum work by 2029.
Until Core commits to steps and timing, Edwards says the issue stays on the back burner—keeping the “quantum roadmap would push” price thesis contingent on developers finally biting the bullet.