Which QBs win when their defense gives up 28+ points?
When an NFL defense allows 28 or more points, most quarterbacks lose—but not all. Warren Sharp's data, shared on Bleeding Green Nation, shows Josh Allen (.538) and Jalen Hurts (.500) lead the league in team win rate in those shootouts, much like paul goldschmidt clutch splits spark debate in baseball analytics circles. The chart went viral in Eagles fan communities on August 28, 2026, with 18 replies debating what it says about elite QBs under pressure.
Key Takeaways
- Josh Allen (7-6, .538) and Jalen Hurts (7-7, .500) top Warren Sharp's list when defenses allow 28+ points.
- Patrick Mahomes (.429) ranks third; a sharp drop follows the top tier, per Bleeding Green Nation commenters.
- Eagles fans cross-checked Hurts at 7-7 since 2022 on Pro Football Reference, noting playoff games are excluded.
- Secret Base released a new Jalen Hurts documentary the same day, reinforcing his winning reputation.
- CBS Sports flagged 20 veterans who could be cut, including several former Chiefs.
Which quarterbacks win when their defense allows 28+ points?
According to a Warren Sharp post embedded on Bleeding Green Nation, team win percentage by quarterback when the defense allows 28 or more points breaks down as follows: Josh Allen at .538 (7-6), Jalen Hurts at .500 (7-7), Patrick Mahomes at .429 (3-4), Jared Goff at .360 (9-16), Davis Mills at .333 (2-4), Brock Purdy at .333 (3-6), Lamar Jackson at .308 (4-9), and Sam Darnold at .286 (2-5). The tweet lists additional names that were truncated in the embed.
BirdGang6569 shared the stat with no additional commentary, but the community quickly treated it as a resiliency metric. Masked Man called it a "handling adversity stat," noting a big drop-off after Allen, Hurts, and Mahomes. TFfast wrote that Hurts being so high on the list is "just another example of why the guy is underrated by almost everyone."
How accurate is Jalen Hurts' spot on the list?
Not everyone accepted the numbers at face value. JoeDirtsBarber argued the stat "isn't accurate" for team scoring. LeonardWeaverNo.1Fan checked Pro Football Reference and found Hurts is 7-7 since 2022 in starts where the opponent scored 28, or 7-6 if you exclude a 2024 Washington game where he left with an injury. Full career, Hurts is 8-13 in such games, with weaker early defenses dragging down the total.
That commenter noted Sharp likely ran a data search for QB record in games started, so other entries may be off too. Playoff games are excluded from Sharp's chart; Hurts is 0-3 in the postseason when opponents hit 28, including both Tampa Bay losses and a Super Bowl defeat. For more trending analysis, see our Fintech & Crypto Alerts hub.
What else was buzzing in NFL circles that day?
The same Bleeding Green Nation feed highlighted a new Secret Base video titled "From benched, doubted and overlooked, to Super Bowl MVP," covering Hurts' path from benching at Alabama to Super Bowl MVP. Staff writer shamus_clancy posted that he loves their work and was eager to watch. One commenter quoted the video: "Don't shit else matter but winning."
Separately, Arrowhead Pride discussed a CBS Sports list of 20 veterans who could be roster-cut casualties. KCnOH noted multiple former Chiefs—and one current Chief—appear on the short list, asking whether that reflects Kansas City's habit of signing retreads. Commenters flagged names including Hardman, Scantling, Ogbah, Jerry Tillery, Damien Pierce, and Mazi Smith.
Why does this stat matter for the 2026 season?
Shootout games expose which quarterbacks can carry offenses when defensive support collapses. Allen and Hurts sitting above .500 in those spots suggests their teams can still steal wins in high-scoring affairs. Hopkins48!! noted Drake Maye already has seven such games versus nine for Cam Ward, adding that the comparison puts New England's defense in proper perspective.
As roster cuts loom and narratives about Hurts swirl, Sharp's chart gives fans a concrete talking point. Whether you view it as proof of quarterback greatness or a noisy small-sample stat, the conversation is firmly about winning when it costs the most.