Polina Iatcenko vs Sabalenka: US Open second round odds
DIRECT ANSWER: Polina Iatcenko faces two-time defending U.S. Open champion Aryna Sabalenka as a heavy underdog in the second round on Wednesday, September 2. Sportsbooks price Sabalenka at -4000 and Iatcenko at +1400. Sports Illustrated analyst Iain MacMillan expects Sabalenka to win but recommends the over 17.5 total games at -104.
The matchup matters because Sabalenka can join Chris Evert and Serena Williams as the only women to win the U.S. Open three straight years. For Iatcenko, a Russian qualifier, this is already the deepest Grand Slam run of her career.
Key Takeaways
- Sabalenka is listed at -4000 (97.56% implied win probability); Iatcenko is +1400.
- The pair have never met; Iatcenko upset Renata Zarazua in a 294-minute first-round marathon.
- MacMillan's best bet is over 17.5 games (-104), citing Sabalenka's recent form concerns.
- Watch live at 7:00 p.m. EDT on Arthur Ashe Stadium via ESPN or the ESPN app.
- Iatcenko has played four matches including qualifying; fatigue could be a factor.
Who Is Polina Iatcenko?
Polina Iatcenko arrived at Flushing Meadows as a qualifier and has already played four matches to reach round two. She beat Renata Zarazua 4-6, 6-4, 7-6 (10-7) on Sunday in a grueling 294-minute first-round epic, per Yardbarker.
Before this week, her best Grand Slam result was nowhere near this stage. She won the WTA 125 Caldas da Rainha Open in Portugal last year but lost in Cincinnati qualifying last month. She had not won a non-qualifying WTA match since January's Workday Canberra International before upsetting Zarazua.
What Are the Odds for Sabalenka vs Iatcenko?
According to Sports Illustrated, Sabalenka sits at -4000 with a 97.56% implied probability. Iatcenko is priced at +1400 as the long shot.
The total games line sits at 17.5, with the over at -104 and the under at -128. MacMillan backs the over, arguing Sabalenka should win comfortably but may need more games than expected given recent losses to Ekaterina Alexandrova at the National Bank Open and an upset by Sara Bejlek at Cincinnati.
Where Can You Watch Sabalenka vs Iatcenko?
The second-round clash starts at 7:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, September 2 at Arthur Ashe Stadium. U.S. viewers can watch on ESPN as part of Primetime at the U.S. Open, with Spanish coverage on ESPN Deportes and streaming via the ESPN app and select Disney+ coverage.
UK and Ireland fans can tune in on Sky Sports. Australian viewers have Channel 9 and 9Now. Much of Europe carries the tournament on Eurosport 1 and 2.
Why Does This Match Matter for Sabalenka's Legacy?
Sabalenka beat Camila Osorio in straight sets to open her title defense. She owns an 85% career win rate at the U.S. Open and has reached at least the semifinals in five straight years, including back-to-back championships in 2024 and 2025.
Underdog stories like Iatcenko's often draw buzz beyond the baseline — for more offbeat sports headlines, browse our Bizarre News & Florida Man hub. Still, the form gap is stark: Iatcenko faces the world No. 1 on short rest after her marathon, while Sabalenka hunts history on hard courts at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.