2 reasons ORCL stock could double in value by 2028

ORCL stock could roughly double by 2028 if its cheaper valuation and expanding AI backlog hold, according to Motley Fool analysis republished on Yahoo Finance. A lower P/E after fiscal 2026 profit growth and nearly $200 billion in new deals beyond OpenAI underpin the bull case—even as debt and credit risks mount.

Key Takeaways

• ORCL stock’s earnings multiple fell to about 22 after a 37% rise in fiscal 2026 net income, with analysts pointing to a forward P/E near 16.
• Remaining performance obligations reached $638 billion, including almost $200 billion in additional deals booked in the nine months after the OpenAI announcement.
• Trefis highlights a roughly $70 billion expected net capex outlay next fiscal year and plans to raise about $40 billion in debt and equity.
• S&P Global downgraded Oracle to BBB- on July 9, 2026—one notch above junk—citing AI build-out costs and OpenAI concentration.

Why could ORCL stock double by 2028?

The core bull case for ORCL stock rests on valuation and backlog, not a rebound narrative alone. Motley Fool notes that a falling share price plus a 37% increase in net income in fiscal 2026 cut Oracle’s P/E multiple to 22, below the S&P 500’s average of 32.

Analysts also expect further profit growth that could push the forward P/E to about 16 if the stock does not rebound soon. That cheaper multiple is why some investors now see ORCL stock as more attractive despite heavy borrowing.

For more coverage of AI infrastructure winners and risks, see our Future Tech & AI Wonders desk.

Is Oracle’s AI backlog big enough without OpenAI?

When Oracle announced its OpenAI deal, that customer made up about two-thirds of a then-$455 billion remaining performance obligation (RPO) pile. Losing all or part of that deal would still be a major setback.

Yet Motley Fool reports the backlog has since risen to $638 billion. Oracle effectively booked the equivalent of about 60% of an OpenAI-sized deal in other business, helping justify borrowing and the $56 billion spent on capital expenditures in fiscal 2026.

Trefis adds that cloud infrastructure revenue grew 93% in the latest quarter, with $67 billion in AI infrastructure contracts signed in that period alone. Traditional cloud apps still grew about 10%, but AI demand is clearly the main engine.

What execution and credit risks still hang over ORCL stock?

Trefis frames the trade-off bluntly: a $638 billion backlog versus a capital-intensive build-out. Oracle expects a net cash outlay for capex of around $70 billion next fiscal year and plans to raise about $40 billion in debt and equity. Debt already equals about 43% of market value in Trefis’ tally, and the stock is down about 42% over the past year.

Credit markets are watching too. According to heise online, S&P Global cut Oracle from BBB to BBB- on July 9, 2026—the lowest investment-grade rung—while keeping a stable outlook. S&P forecasts a free operating cash-flow deficit of nearly $42 billion for fiscal 2027 and calls OpenAI a “central credit risk,” estimating it accounts for roughly half of the $638 billion RPO.

S&P also expects cloud infrastructure to rise from about 27% of fiscal 2026 revenue toward nearly 60% by 2028, while warning Oracle has less financial flexibility than Microsoft, Google, or Amazon.

So is the double-by-2028 thesis still credible?

Motley Fool argues the two catalysts—a more reasonable valuation and RPO growth not fully tied to OpenAI—could set ORCL stock up to double by 2028 if execution holds. The counterweight is clear from Trefis and S&P: converting backlog into cash without letting leverage, dilution, or customer concentration derail the story.

Investors following ORCL stock should watch gross margins as new AI revenue is recognized, financing needs, and whether non-OpenAI bookings keep expanding. The upside case is real on paper; the path runs through delivery, not just contracts.