Open Championship 2026: Expert picks and Birkdale odds
The Open Championship 2026 tees off Thursday, July 16, at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England, with defending champion Scottie Scheffler the +750 favorite and Rory McIlroy next on the board. A SportsLine model that has nailed 17 majors still flags Scheffler, while firm, fast links and hometown buzz around Tommy Fleetwood define the week.
Key Takeaways
- Play begins Thursday at Royal Birkdale; Scheffler is the +750 favorite, with McIlroy close behind.
- SportsLine’s 10,000-run model fades Fleetwood from the top five and projects Ludvig Aberg as a top-three surprise at longer odds.
- Players describe baked-out, firm-and-fast Birkdale as “unprecedented,” a sharp contrast with the soft 2017 Open Jordan Spieth won there.
- PGA Tour experts are mixing fantasy captains and betting angles, including Justin Rose as a Top-20 play.
For more oddball sports drama beyond the leaderboard, browse BlasterPost’s Bizarre World coverage.
Who are the Open Championship 2026 favorites?
According to CBS Sports, first tee times start at 1:35 a.m. ET, with Scheffler out at 4:58 a.m. ET. Scheffler is listed at +750 to repeat. McIlroy sits next at +850.
Englishmen Matt Fitzpatrick (+1300) and Tommy Fleetwood (+1500) follow, with Jon Rahm (+2000) and Xander Schauffele (+2500) also among the shorter prices. Spieth, the 2017 Birkdale champion, is back on a course that last hosted The Open nine years ago.
Why is Royal Birkdale expected to play so differently?
ESPN reports golfers are eyeing firm, fast turf after unseasonably warm weeks on England’s northwest coast, with little to no rain forecast across all four rounds. That setup differs from the wet, soft Birkdale Spieth conquered in 2017.
Rahm called the ground game “unprecedented,” warning a downwind 6-iron could travel 280 yards. McIlroy labeled the firm-and-fast look a “double-edged sword,” noting the rough has burned out and may be less penal than it was weeks earlier.
Strategy talk centers on fairway bunkers: McIlroy suggested some players may be more aggressive with driver to avoid them, while still treating Birkdale as a serious championship test.
What surprising Open Championship 2026 predictions are experts making?
CBS says SportsLine’s model, built by Mike McClure and credited with 17 majors entering the weekend, simulated the event 10,000 times. One shock call: fade Fleetwood from the top five despite +1500 odds and local support.
The model notes Fleetwood’s two career Open top-fives, but also a 2024 missed cut, a finish outside the top 10 last year, 27th at Birkdale in 2017, and no better than T11 in any major this season. Another surprise: Aberg projects as a top-three contender at about +3300 after a T4 at the PGA Championship and strong driving.
On the PGA Tour Expert Picks desk, analysts are weighing links form and value. Chris Breece highlighted Justin Rose to finish Top 20 with ties at +150 on DraftKings, citing Rose’s steady major play in these conditions.
Whether Scheffler repeats, McIlroy closes strong, or a Birkdale local crashes the party, the Open Championship 2026 hinges on who can control the ball on scorched links before the Claret Jug is lifted Sunday.