The off campus effect: streamers bet on scripted romance
Global streamers are pivoting toward scripted romance and away from reality dating shows in a commissioning shift tied to hits like Prime Video's Off Campus, the off campus effect. Ampere Analysis found 83% of first-run romance commissions in the first half of 2026 were scripted, up from a near-even split with reality in late 2022. The trend matters because platforms are chasing younger viewers with higher-budget literary adaptations instead of unscripted formats like Love Island and Love Is Blind.
Key Takeaways
- Ampere Analysis reports 83% of first-run romance commissions in H1 2026 were scripted, versus an almost equal reality-scripted split in H2 2022.
- Book adaptations account for 40% of scripted romance orders since 2025, with adaptation volume up 73% since 2023, partly prompted by BookTok.
- Prime Video and Netflix are leading the shift, with shows such as Off Campus and Heated Rivalry cited as proof points.
- Romance remains unusually resilient among 18-24 viewers, even as interest in comedy, action, and crime genres has declined.
- Reality dating hits still draw audiences, but streamers are rethinking commissioning toward scripted series with established fan bases.
What Is the Off Campus Effect?
The off campus effect describes how global streaming platforms are falling in love with scripted romance, predominantly literary adaptations, at the expense of reality dating formats. The name reflects the momentum around Off Campus, a Prime Video scripted adaptation that Ampere Analysis cites alongside Heated Rivalry as emblematic of the moment.
Mariana Enriquez Denton Bustinza, senior analyst at Ampere Analysis, told Variety that scripted romance shows are currently central in the cultural zeitgeist, and none more so than literary adaptations. She added that the continued success of these titles has encouraged global streamers to rethink their commissioning approach to new romance content, moving away from reality TV and towards higher-budget scripted shows with established fan bases.
Why Are Streamers Choosing Scripted Romance Over Dating Shows?
The commissioning math has shifted sharply in just a few years. In the second half of 2022, reality and scripted romance greenlights were nearly balanced. By the first half of 2026, scripted titles dominated at 83% of first-run romance orders.
Literary adaptations underpin much of that growth. Since the first half of 2025, 40% of scripted romance commissions have been adapted from books, and the number of book adaptations has increased by 73% since 2023, a trend Ampere partly attributes to the rise of BookTok. For more context on how platforms are reshaping their slates, see our Streaming & TV Alerts coverage.
Are Younger Viewers Still Watching Romance?
Yes, and that durability is part of the appeal. Ampere found romance has remained unusually resilient with 18-24 audiences. In the first quarter of 2026, 49% of respondents in that bracket said they were enjoying romance, the same share recorded in the first quarter of 2020.
By contrast, interest in comedy and action-adventure fell 9% over the same comparison period, while crime and thriller dropped 5%. Prime Video and Netflix are leading the trend of commissioning scripted romance as platforms target that younger demographic.
Does Reality Dating Still Have a Place on Streaming?
Reality romance formats have not disappeared. Shows such as Love Island and Love Is Blind still draw plenty of fans, according to Ampere's research, despite the shift toward scripted commissioning.
Streamers appear to be betting that scripted literary adaptations offer established fan bases and bigger budgets, even as unscripted dating remains popular with existing franchises. The data points to a reordering of what gets greenlit next, not an overnight exit for reality romance altogether.