Navajo Stirling predicted to outpoint Blachowicz Saturday
Undefeated Navajo Stirling is the clear pick to beat former champion Jan Blachowicz at UFC Fight Night 283 in Belgrade. Analysts favor the 28-year-old City Kickboxing prospect by decision after he stepped in on short notice, while the 43-year-old Blachowicz hunts his first win since May 2022.
Key Takeaways
- Navajo Stirling (10-0) meets Jan Blachowicz in the UFC Fight Night 283 co-main event at Belgrade Arena.
- Stirling accepted the bout on less than three weeks' notice after finishing Ion Cutelaba in June.
- Oddsmakers list Stirling around -335 to -350, with Blachowicz a sizable underdog.
- MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom officially picks Stirling by decision.
- The fight is expected around 3:10 p.m. ET and streams on Paramount+.
What happened with the Navajo Stirling vs. Blachowicz booking?
Jan Blachowicz was originally set for a rematch with Bogdan Guskov in Saturday's co-main event. Guskov was pulled to face Magomed Ankalaev at UFC Fight Night 282 in Abu Dhabi, opening the door for an impromptu light heavyweight clash.
Bizarre World readers will love the twist: Stirling told MMA Junkie he had just come "off a massive bender" after holiday mode in Japan when the offer landed — and still said yes.
"I just said, 'Yeah, bro, I'm keen. I'm training everyday,'" Stirling said, adding he wanted to utilize his youth after what he called the best camp of his life.
Why do oddsmakers favor Navajo Stirling so heavily?
Stirling enters undefeated at 10-0 MMA and 5-0 in the UFC, fighting for the third time this year. He stopped Bruno Lopes in March and Ion Cutelaba in June, both in the second round.
Blachowicz (29-11-2 MMA, 12-8-2 UFC) is still searching for his first win since May 2022 against Aleksandar Rakic. Since that victory, the former champion has two losses and two draws, including a majority draw with Guskov at UFC 323 in December.
Via FanDuel, Stirling has been listed as steep as -335 or -350, with Blachowicz around +270. SportsGrid analysis also framed Blachowicz as a significant underdog near +260, calling this Stirling's toughest opponent yet despite the veteran's experience.
Stirling admitted he expected to be the underdog. "Damn, I thought I was going to be the underdog," he said, joking that posting clips from Japan might swing the line the other way.
Who wins Navajo Stirling vs. Jan Blachowicz?
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom still respects Blachowicz as a live underdog but notes it is hard to gauge the 43-year-old, who has only one official win (by injury) in the last half-decade. Tom says Blachowicz retains underrated striking defense, yet his offense has looked less potent in recent years.
Tom expects the 28-year-old Stirling to manage pacing across three rounds and, if needed, wrestle. His official pick: Stirling strikes and grapples his way to a decision win — "It might not be pretty if he's unable to finish."
SportsGrid's combat segment similarly suggested Blachowicz's best path may involve takedowns, but still viewed his overall chances as slim given age and wear.
Cage walk for the co-feature is expected around 3:10 p.m. ET on Paramount+ from Belgrade Arena in Serbia.