Will NASCAR experience decide Chicagoland's eero 400 winner?
Experience helps at Chicagoland, but NASCAR Racing Insights projects that current 1.5-mile speed—not old-track memory—will decide Sunday's eero 400. Denny Hamlin is forecast to win after edging Kyle Larson for pole by 0.001 seconds, while Tyler Reddick lacks Cup starts there yet still ranks among the model's top contenders. With just eight regular-season races left, Joliet marks the Cup Series' first Next Gen race at a bumpy oval dormant since 2019.
Key Takeaways
- Racing Insights projects Denny Hamlin to win, with Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, William Byron and Ryan Blaney completing the top five.
- Only 21 Cup drivers have Chicagoland starts; Tyler Reddick is not among them, yet his 2026 intermediate-track form remains elite.
- Hamlin won pole at 178.241 mph, his third straight oval pole and fourth of 2026, beating Larson by one-thousandth of a second.
- The eero 400 airs Sunday at 6 p.m. ET on TNT Sports, truTV and HBO Max—the Cup Series' return after three years on Chicago streets.
Why does NASCAR return to Chicagoland now?
After three seasons racing downtown Chicago, the Cup Series is back at the 1.52-mile Joliet tri-oval for the first time since Alex Bowman won in 2019. Sunday's eero 400 covers 267 laps and will be the 20th Cup event at the track.
This weekend also marks the first Next Gen car race at Chicagoland. Drivers must manage an aged, bumpy surface with multiple racing grooves—from the bottom lane to the wall—while only eight regular-season races remain on the calendar.
Will track experience decide the eero 400 winner?
NASCAR.com's Racing Insights asks whether seven years without Cup action makes Chicagoland history essential. The answer is mixed. Ryan Blaney brings a 9.8 average finish across four Cup starts, his best mark on any 1.5-mile track, and enters on six straight top 10s.
Yet Tyler Reddick—23XI Racing's points challenger just one point behind Hamlin—has never made a Cup start at Chicagoland. He still paced 10-, 15-, 20- and 25-lap practice averages and ranks second in average running position on intermediate tracks this season. Larson, meanwhile, has a 42-race winless streak but led laps in 12 of his last 13 1.5-mile events.
Pole-sitter Hamlin called Larson the best driver at this race track, even as Racing Insights taps the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran for Victory Lane. As analytics reshape how teams prepare for unfamiliar surfaces, the revival aligns with broader Future Tech & AI Wonders trends in data-driven competition.
Who projects to win Sunday's race?
Racing Insights' full projected top five: Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, William Byron and Ryan Blaney. Chris Buescher, Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace round out the projected top eight.
Hamlin—2015 Chicagoland winner and June Michigan victor—leads the standings by one point over Reddick. Larson qualified second and seeks his first win since Kansas in May 2025. Blaney starts 14th; Reddick starts 13th despite strong practice speeds.
How did Denny Hamlin claim pole on Saturday?
Hamlin turned a 30.296-second lap at 178.241 mph to claim his 52nd career pole—breaking a tie with Ryan Newman for ninth all-time. He beat Larson by 0.001 seconds, crediting favorable cloud cover as the track heated under full sun for later qualifiers.
RFK Racing's Chris Buescher and Brad Keselowski filled Row 2; Keselowski is the only active driver with multiple Chicagoland wins. Hamlin called himself the Chicago master and noted it was his first pole at the speedway—making him the only driver with Cup poles at both Chicagoland and the former Chicago Street Course.
For full projections and qualifying details, see NASCAR.com's Racing Insights report.