Minions & Monsters eyes $80M July 4 weekend as Supergirl drops 60%
Universal and Illumination's Minions & Monsters is projected to top the domestic box office over the July 4 holiday weekend with roughly $80 million from about 4,000 North American theaters, while Warner Bros.' Supergirl faces a steep 60% second-weekend drop after a weak $37.1 million debut. Theater owners are bracing for another Minion-led holiday frame as the seventh Despicable Me installment opens into a crowded summer slate.
Key Takeaways
- Minions & Monsters is tracking toward an $80 million five-day domestic opening, though studio and exhibitor estimates range from $60 million to $90 million.
- Supergirl is expected to fall about 60% in its second weekend to roughly $15 million after opening well below expectations.
- Disney's Toy Story 5 should add $35 million to $45 million in its third weekend after crossing $300 million domestic and $585 million worldwide.
- Holiday timing and global distractions, including World Cup matches, could soften the usual July 4 moviegoing surge.
- With a $170 million budget, Supergirl is projected to lose $100 million to $120 million theatrically.
How Much Will 'Minions & Monsters' Earn Over July 4?
According to Variety, Minions & Monsters enters the five-day holiday frame aiming for $80 million from roughly 4,000 North American locations. Exhibitors and rival studios are split on the final tally, with forecasts landing anywhere between $60 million and $90 million.
The $85 million production is the seventh entry in the Despicable Me franchise and the latest bet that Illumination's yellow sidekicks still pull families into theaters. Prior entries in the series have shown strong staying power, suggesting the film could remain a summer fixture even if its opening trails some predecessors, which carried $100 million budgets.
Internationally, the film collected $10 million from 10 markets last weekend and is set to expand into another 59 territories over the holiday. For more summer theatrical shifts, see our Streaming & TV Alerts coverage.
Why Is 'Supergirl' Dropping 60% in Weekend Two?
Supergirl is bracing for a 60% decline after debuting to just $37.1 million domestically. That would leave the DC Studios release with about $15 million in its second frame, a sharp fall for a title that arrived with blockbuster ambitions.
The film has reached $37 million in North America and $62 million globally to date. Variety notes it highlights ongoing challenges for comic-book adaptations centered on lesser-known heroes, especially when budgets balloon. At $170 million, Supergirl is now projected to lose at least $100 million to $120 million during its theatrical run.
Could July 4 Timing Hurt the Holiday Box Office?
Not every headwind is tied to franchise fatigue. Box office watchers say attendance may land below a typical July 4 weekend because the holiday falls on a Saturday. Instead of packing theaters on the busiest moviegoing day of the week, many Americans may prioritize barbecues and fireworks, including celebrations around the country's 250th birthday.
Overseas, World Cup matches could pull attention away from cinemas as well. Against that backdrop, Minions & Monsters still looks positioned to lead the domestic chart, with Toy Story 5 continuing to perform as another animated sequel win in third place.
What Else Is Competing at the Box Office?
While Minions & Monsters chases the top spot, Toy Story 5 is forecast to earn $35 million to $45 million in its third weekend. The Pixar sequel has already collected $300 million domestically and $585 million worldwide after 12 days in release, reinforcing animation's hold on the summer market even as superhero titles struggle to hold momentum.