Miami Marlins try to build on walk-off win vs. Phillies
The Miami Marlins (53-54) host the Philadelphia Phillies (57-50) on Tuesday, July 28, at loanDepot park after snapping a 12-game skid with an 8-7 walk-off win Monday. Aaron Nola (3-8, 5.82 ERA) faces Sandy Alcantara (10-6, 4.01 ERA), with first pitch set for 6:40 p.m. ET as Miami looks to extend its rebound.
Key Takeaways
- Game two of the series starts at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park in Miami.
- The Miami Marlins ended a 12-game losing streak with an 8-7 walk-off on Monday.
- Nola is 3-8 with a 5.82 ERA; Alcantara is 10-6 with a 4.01 ERA and a 3.26 home ERA.
- Oddsmakers list Miami as a slight favorite (-115) with a total of 8 runs.
- Philly is 3-7 since the All-Star break and has lost five of its last six games.
What is at stake for the Miami Marlins tonight?
After a brutal post-break slide, the Miami Marlins finally got a win Monday and now try to string together results against an NL East rival. Miami entered the series just below .500 at 53-54, still searching for consistency after being swept in its first three series after the All-Star break.
A second straight win would matter beyond the standings narrative. Fox News noted the recent skid could shift Miami from trade-deadline buyers toward sellers, making each Alcantara start feel larger for a young roster still figuring things out.
For more oddball sports and culture coverage, visit the Bizarre World hub at BlasterPost.
Why are the Phillies struggling against this Miami Marlins matchup?
Philadelphia sits at 57-50 but has cooled sharply: 9-12 in July, 3-7 since the break, and five losses in its last six games. Two of Philly's second-half wins came with Christopher Sanchez on the mound, underscoring how thin the rotation's reliability has been beyond its aces.
Nola's season numbers explain the worry. He owns a 5.82 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with 112 strikeouts, and his road ERA is still 5.06. Marlins hitters are batting .300 against him in 40 at-bats this year, and no National League pitcher has allowed more home runs (25) than Nola in 2026.
He did deliver one of his best outings against Miami earlier—six innings, five hits, no runs—so the history is not one-sided. Still, the Phillies arrive looking for a stopper more than a sure thing.
Can Sandy Alcantara give the Miami Marlins another edge at home?
Alcantara, the 2022 NL Cy Young winner, brings a 10-6 record, 4.01 ERA, and 1.23 WHIP into the start. His home ERA of 3.26 is the clearest edge: he has allowed only 24 earned runs at home, with 13 of those coming in just two starts.
He limited the Phillies to two earned runs over six innings in an earlier meeting this season. That said, current Phillies batters have posted an .820 OPS against him, and he allowed five earned runs in one of his worst starts last Wednesday—fuel for totals bettors expecting a louder night.
SportsLine's model, after 10,000 simulations, projected about 9.8 combined runs and leaned Over the 8-run total. The last three meetings averaged 13.7 runs, and the Over is 5-3 in eight matchups this season. Money line: Marlins -115, Phillies -104.
Whether Miami builds on Monday's walk-off or Philly snaps its skid hinges on which version of Nola and Alcantara shows up in South Florida.