Liberty can't afford complacency against gritty Valkyries
The New York Liberty cannot afford another flat effort Sunday night against the Golden State Valkyries. After Jonquel Jones blasted her team's heart following a 99-88 loss in Seattle, New York wraps a rocky four-game road trip at Chase Center against a gritty 12-7 Valkyries side that already beat them 87-70 and arrives on back-to-back home wins.
Key Takeaways
- Liberty star Jonquel Jones demanded more heart after New York dropped three of its last four games, including Thursday's loss to the Storm.
- Golden State already demolished the Liberty 87-70 in May and enters Sunday on back-to-back wins over Atlanta behind All-Star candidate Gabby Williams.
- Breanna Stewart is expected back for New York, but Satou Sabally is out with a concussion as the Liberty face a potential letdown spot before Tuesday's Commissioner's Cup final.
- Betting analysts favor the Valkyries at home, citing Golden State's elite defence and New York's 3-6 road record against the spread.
The Liberty-Valkyries rematch lands in the Bizarre World spotlight for good reason: two identical 12-7 records, Bay Area storylines, and a squad suddenly sounding alarms about complacency. What should have been a routine road finale now carries real stakes.
Why is Jonquel Jones demanding more from the Liberty?
Jones was blunt after New York's 99-88 defeat in Seattle on Thursday. She refused to blame lineup changes for 16 turnovers that produced 15 Storm points, telling reporters the Liberty simply need to be "better locked in."
"It's not about the reps, it's not about the playing time, it's not about none of that stuff," Jones said, according to the New York Post. "It's about having some heart and playing with some f–king heart."
The Liberty have lost three of their last four and suffered disappointing results against Portland, Washington, Los Angeles and Seattle. Effort and focus have waned at times, and the Liberty have shown a willingness to play down to opponents.
Can the Valkyries defence smother New York again?
Golden State already sent a warning in the first meeting, routing the Liberty 87-70 at the start of New York's Brooklyn homestand. Turnovers, missed shots and poor defensive execution doomed that night, and the Valkyries' smothering team defence remains the central threat.
Led by All-Star candidate Gabby Williams, Golden State is riding back-to-back wins over Atlanta, including Friday's 78-75 grind. Williams said she expects New York to "throw that first punch" after Seattle, but added that how the Valkyries handled Atlanta gives her confidence for Sunday.
Covers.com analyst Phil Naessens notes the Valkyries boast a 103.1 defensive net rating over their last five games and have surrendered just 76.3 points per game at Chase Center this season. His Liberty vs. Valkyries prediction calls for Golden State to win a nail-biter behind that home-floor identity.
What do the odds say before the Commissioner's Cup?
The timing only sharpens the tension. Yahoo Sports' TST Best Bets flags Sunday as a possible letdown spot for New York, with the Liberty set to face Las Vegas in the WNBA Commissioner's Cup final just two days later on Tuesday.
New York will be without Satou Sabally, who is in concussion protocol, while Breanna Stewart is expected to return after resting against Seattle. Sabrina Ionescu, still rounding into form after back soreness, could factor in with Bay Area roots after her Orinda high school gym was named in her honor on Friday.
Yahoo's first pick is Golden State -1.5, citing the Valkyries' 9-3 home record and New York's 3-6 mark against the spread on the road. Covers leans Valkyries moneyline with an under on 163.5 points, framing a grind that suits Golden State far more than a Liberty side that cannot afford another sleepy Sunday in San Francisco.