Kamil Majchrzak tipped over Bellucci at Hangzhou Open
Kamil Majchrzak is the slight favorite to beat Mattia Bellucci in Thursday's ATP Hangzhou Open round of 32, with models giving him roughly a 53% win chance. U.S. odds list Majchrzak near -133 versus Bellucci at +114, though some tips still back Bellucci for value and expect a tight three-setter.
Key Takeaways
- Predictive models give Kamil Majchrzak about a 53% chance to win the Hangzhou round of 32.
- U.S. moneylines sit near Majchrzak -133 and Bellucci +114; Australian prices were about $1.72 and $2.10.
- Last Word On Sports tips Majchrzak in three; Dimers' best bet is over 22.5 games.
- Bellucci leads the head-to-head 1-0, but Majchrzak owns stronger 2026 title form.
The match is scheduled for Thursday, September 24, 2026, at about 4:00 a.m. ET (6:00 p.m. AEST) in the ATP Hangzhou, China men's singles round of 32. For more oddball sports angles, see our Bizarre World hub.
Who wins Kamil Majchrzak vs Mattia Bellucci?
Dimers and Stats Insider both ran large simulation sets and land on the same lean: Majchrzak at 53% to defeat Bellucci. Dimers also gives him a 51% chance to take the first set.
Last Word On Sports agrees on the winner but expects a grind, projecting Majchrzak in three sets. The Polish player won his first ATP title this season and sits one Tour-level win from matching his 17 victories from 2022, though recent form has been mixed as he aims to climb back toward the Top 50.
Bellucci's confidence is a question mark after a crushing US Open loss to Taylor Fritz. His lefty serve can still trouble opponents, which is why the matchup is framed as competitive rather than one-sided.
What are the odds and betting picks?
According to Dimers, U.S. odds at publication were Majchrzak -133 and Bellucci +114 on the moneyline, with first-set prices of Majchrzak -139 and Bellucci +110.
Stats Insider listed Australian head-to-head prices of Majchrzak $1.72 and Bellucci $2.10. Both outlets say their models favor Majchrzak to win the match, yet both also flag Bellucci's moneyline as the value side against those odds. Dimers' top play is over 22.5 total games (52% model probability), with Bellucci +1.5 games at 53% to cover.
Why does head-to-head history matter here?
Last Word On Sports notes Majchrzak trails the head-to-head 0-1 against Bellucci. That prior result, plus Bellucci's awkward lefty patterns, helps explain why models stay near a coin flip despite Majchrzak's seasonal title breakthrough.
Still, the consensus across Dimers, Stats Insider, and Last Word On Sports is that Majchrzak's consistency should be enough to advance—likely in a close contest rather than a straight-sets stroll.