Josh Turek leads Ashley Hinson by 4 points in Iowa Senate poll

Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Ashley Hinson 50% to 46% in a new Fox News poll of Iowa's open U.S. Senate race—a four-point edge within the survey's ±3-point margin of error. The result signals a competitive contest for retiring Sen. Joni Ernst's seat in a state Democrats have not held since 2008.

The July 1 survey, conducted June 23–27 among 1,003 registered Iowa voters, arrived as Turek launched his statewide Team Iowa tour with an anti-corruption message. National analysts now rank the Hawkeye State among 2026's closest Senate battles.

Key Takeaways

• Josh Turek leads Ashley Hinson 50%–46% in the Fox News poll, with 4% undecided.
• The margin is within the poll's ±3-point sampling error; other surveys show a tighter race.
• Turek kicked off a 99-county Team Iowa tour in Cedar Rapids on July 1.
• The contest will decide who succeeds retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.
• The same poll shows Democrat Rob Sand leading the Iowa governor's race.

Why Does Josh Turek's 4-Point Lead Matter in Iowa?

Iowa has trended Republican in recent cycles. President Donald Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024, and the last Democrat elected to the Senate was Tom Harkin in 2008. A Turek lead—even a narrow one—suggests Democrats see a real opening after Ernst's retirement.

The Fox News poll also found Iowans view Trump unfavorably by 13 points, a sharp shift from his +6 rating in the network's 2024 election survey. Turek holds a net positive favorability rating of 18 points, while Hinson's is negative by 7 points.

What Do Other Polls Show in the Turek vs. Hinson Race?

Not every survey agrees. A New York Times/Siena College poll of 600 likely voters, conducted June 15–27, found Hinson ahead 48% to 46%, with a margin of error of ±4.7 points. A Cygnal survey also gave Hinson a narrow advantage.

Taken together, polling averages show the race essentially tied. As campaigns increasingly rely on voter-file sampling and multi-mode outreach, single polls can diverge sharply—making Iowa a data-rich battleground to watch. For more on how technology shapes competitive races, see our Future Tech & AI Wonders coverage.

How Is Josh Turek Campaigning After the Poll?

On July 1, Turek launched his Team Iowa tour at the IBEW Local 405 union hall in Cedar Rapids, joined by about 30 supporters. He pledged to visit all 99 counties over 130 days, pitching a livable wage, affordable housing, health care, and ethics reform.

Turek vowed to fight corruption in Washington, backing term limits for Congress and the Supreme Court, a ban on stock trading by federal officials, and campaign finance transparency. He has rejected corporate PAC donations, according to the Des Moines Register.

Who Are the Candidates for Iowa's Open Senate Seat?

Turek, a state representative from Council Bluffs and two-time Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball, won the Democratic primary over state Sen. Zach Wahls. Hinson, who represented Iowa's 2nd Congressional District, secured the GOP nomination in June with President Trump's endorsement.

Both parties view the seat as pivotal to Senate control. CNN recently added Iowa to its list of the most competitive 2026 Senate races, reflecting national interest in a contest that could hinge on turnout across the state's 3.2 million residents.