James Talarico leads as Republicans withhold Senate cash

James Talarico holds a 5-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in Texas's open Senate race, while major GOP super PACs have yet to spend. Donors still resent a bruising primary, Texas airtime is costly, and Talarico's fundraising edge has left Senate Leadership Fund and MAGA Inc. waiting for each other to blink.

Key Takeaways

• A Texas Public Opinion Research poll finds James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton, 45% to 40%, among likely voters.
• Major Republican donors and two top GOP money groups have not poured in general-election cash yet.
• Senate Leadership Fund and MAGA Inc. are each hoping the other spends tens of millions first.
• As of early July, Talarico held about nine times as much cash as Paxton and had already spent $12 million on ads.
• The seat replaces Sen. John Cornyn and could help decide which party controls the U.S. Senate.

Why aren't Republicans funding the Texas Senate race yet?

According to The New York Times, Paxton is in a rare bind for a Senate nominee. Interviews with a dozen Republicans tied to his campaign point to lingering grudges from a bruising primary, an epically expensive state with more than 18 television markets, and a Democratic opponent who has proved a particularly strong fund-raiser.

The Times reports that two of the party's biggest money committees—the Senate Leadership Fund and MAGA Inc.—are not so secretly hoping the other swoops in with tens of millions. Neither has reached for its wallet yet. Oil executive Dan Eberhart, who is raising funds for Paxton, told the Times: "Somebody is going to have to spend big money. We'll see who blinks."

Senate Leadership Fund is funding polling and candidate research and says it is monitoring Texas, but left the state out of a $342 million plan unveiled for eight other states. Allies say the group lacks spare millions given a volatile national map. MAGA Inc., run by top advisers to President Trump and holding an extraordinary $400 million cash reserve, says there is no impasse and that midterm spending plans would be "very soon" and "substantial."

How far ahead is James Talarico in the polls?

A TPOR survey conducted July 15–17 among 1,048 likely Texas voters (margin of error ±3.4 percentage points) shows Talarico at 45% and Paxton at 40%—a 5-point edge and a 2-point gain from TPOR's May post-runoff poll. USA Today notes Talarico's strength with moderates and independents, plus leads on economic understanding and affordability trust.

Fourteen percent remain undecided. Earlier June surveys from The New York Times/Siena and the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project had the race essentially tied. MS NOW also flagged Texas Tribune reporting that Talarico was leading among voters without a college degree—a group that has often favored Republicans.

Coverage of campaigns and polling increasingly intersects with digital outreach and data tools tracked in Future Tech & AI Wonders on BlasterPost.

What does the money gap mean for November?

The Times reports that as of early July, Talarico had nine times as much cash in his main campaign account as Paxton and had already spent $12 million on ads, while also drawing support from wealthy Democrats outside Texas. Other national Republican groups still plan spending in races such as Ohio and Kansas, even where contests are not as close.

Trump endorsed Paxton the week before the May runoff, a move Republicans say dealt a death blow to Cornyn. Whether Senate Leadership Fund or MAGA Inc. blinks first may decide if Paxton can close both the cash and polling gaps before Election Day—a little over four months away when the latest survey dropped.