Jacob Fearnley US Open tips: Why bettors back Landaluce
Jacob Fearnley enters the 2026 US Open main draw as a lucky loser and opens against Martin Landaluce on Sunday, August 30. Sporting Life betting analyst Andy Schooler backs the Spaniard at evens, citing stronger hard-court data, a 35-place ranking edge, and Fearnley's recent qualifying exit in New York.
The first-round clash on Court Five has become one of Sunday's most talked-about US Open betting angles in the Bizarre World of tennis — a British player given a second chance in Flushing Meadows against a fast-rising opponent.
Key Takeaways
- Jacob Fearnley reached the main draw as a lucky loser after losing in the final qualifying round in New York.
- Martin Landaluce is the recommended bet at evens, ranked 35 places higher (world No. 65 vs No. 100).
- Landaluce's combined hard-court hold and break figure of 100 tops Fearnley's 93 this season.
- The match is fourth on Court Five at 20:30 BST; Britwatch Sports predicts Landaluce in four sets.
- A second Sunday tip: Alexander Shevchenko at 5/2 to beat Dino Prizmic.
Why is Jacob Fearnley in the US Open main draw?
After losing narrowly in the last round of qualifying, Jacob Fearnley was handed a second chance as a lucky loser, according to Britwatch Sports. He will face Martin Landaluce in the opening round of the US Open 2026 on outdoor hard courts in New York.
It is the first meeting between the two players. Fearnley's previous best at the US Open was reaching the second round in 2025, while Landaluce's prior best was the second round of qualifying in 2025.
Who do betting experts favor in Landaluce v Fearnley?
Andy Schooler at Sporting Life argues this match has the wrong favourite and recommends a 1.5-point stake on Martin Landaluce to beat Jacob Fearnley at evens. He describes Landaluce as a slight outsider despite holding a clear ranking advantage.
Schooler notes Landaluce is ranked 35 places above Fearnley and believes the Spaniard has a much higher ceiling. Britwatch Sports agrees, predicting Landaluce to win in four sets after a physically demanding contest.
What do the hard-court numbers say?
The statistical case for Landaluce rests on tour-level hard-court performance this season. Sporting Life reports he has held serve 78% of the time and won 22% of return games — a combined total of 100 that sits ahead of Fearnley's equivalent figure of 93.
Landaluce beat Jack Draper and Matteo Arnaldi in Cincinnati before falling in two tie-breaks to Thiago Agustin Tirante. Earlier in 2026, he defeated Luciano Darderi, Karen Khachanov, and Sebastian Korda on hard courts in Miami.
Fearnley, by contrast, has beaten only one top-50 player on hard courts this season — Adrian Mannarino. The week before qualifying, he won just five games in a defeat to Taro Daniel at the Quebec City Challenger.
When and where can you watch the match?
The Jacob Fearnley versus Martin Landaluce match is scheduled fourth on Court Five at 20:30 BST on Sunday, August 30, per Britwatch Sports. First-round prize money for the tie is $140,000.
UK viewers can watch live on Sky Sports and Now TV, both requiring a subscription. Live scores are available through TennisTV and TNNS Live.
What is the second US Open betting tip for Sunday?
Schooler's other recommendation for August 30 is Alexander Shevchenko to beat Dino Prizmic at 5/2 with Boyle Sports, staked at one point. Shevchenko defeated Ben Shelton in Miami this season and reached the Adelaide quarter-finals on hard courts.
Prizmic beat Novak Djokovic in Rome but is on a 2-6 run and has lost both matches since switching to North American hard courts. Schooler believes Shevchenko's price is too generous given his superior hard-court results in 2026.
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