iPhone demand splits as US and Europe gain, China slips
Apple stock price hinges on where iPhones sell, and a fresh UBS survey shows a split: purchase intent is climbing in the United States and Europe but slipped to a quarterly low in China. That matters because China accounts for roughly a fifth of iPhone sales, even as Western markets look stronger.
The Swiss bank polled more than 7,500 smartphone users across the United States, United Kingdom, China, Germany, and Japan to gauge 12-month buying plans. American consumers planning an iPhone purchase rose to around 20%, up from the year before, while intent also climbed in the United Kingdom and Germany.
Key Takeaways
- UBS found 12-month iPhone purchase intent rising in the US, UK, and Germany but slipping in China to roughly 15%.
- China's reading marked a new second-quarter low in the survey's history, concerning given its share of iPhone sales.
- Apple Intelligence is not driving upgrades: about 24% would buy sooner for AI features, while nearly a third say they have no impact.
- CAICT data shows May foreign-branded phone shipments in China fell 19.2% year over year to 3.669 million units.
- Analysts see a potential foldable iPhone as a stronger sales catalyst than current AI features.
Why is iPhone demand rising in the US and Europe?
The survey points to broadening Western interest ahead of Apple's next hardware cycle. In the United States, the share of consumers planning an iPhone purchase within 12 months reached about 20%. Purchase intent also climbed in the United Kingdom and Germany, according to UBS.
Seeking Alpha reports the gains are not tied to Apple Intelligence. UBS instead believes a foldable device could give consumers a more compelling reason to upgrade than AI features unveiled at Apple's developer conference. Analysts estimate a foldable iPhone could add up to 5 million incremental unit sales, roughly 2% upside versus current forecasts.
Why is China dragging on Apple's outlook?
China was the clear weak spot. Purchase intent slipped to roughly 15%, a new low for the second quarter in the survey's history. UBS flagged the reading as a concern, noting the country accounts for about a fifth of iPhone sales and the drop may signal wider economic and competitive pressures.
Government shipment data adds context. According to Reuters calculations based on figures from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, shipments of foreign-branded phones—including Apple iPhones—dropped 19.2% year over year in May to 3.669 million handsets. Overall domestic phone shipments still rose 16.5% to 27.64 million units, suggesting local brands captured more of the market.
What does the split demand mean for Apple stock price?
For investors tracking Future Tech & AI Wonders, the survey complicates the bull case around Apple Intelligence. Interest in those features has cooled, with the proportion of respondents saying the technology would prompt them to upgrade sooner falling to about 24%. Nearly a third said the features would have no bearing on their decision to buy a new phone.
That leaves hardware—not software—as the more likely near-term demand driver. Full survey details are available via Seeking Alpha, while shipment figures are reported by ET Manufacturing.
Could a foldable iPhone change the demand story?
UBS believes a foldable device would give consumers a more compelling upgrade reason than artificial intelligence features. Seeking Alpha notes analysts expect a foldable iPhone to have a more material impact on consumer demand than AI enhancements alone.
Until Apple delivers that hardware shift, the regional split remains the headline: strengthening demand in the United States and Europe, and mounting pressure in China.