Hurricane season is broken: two oceans out of whack

The 2026 hurricane season is historically lopsided: the Atlantic has produced no hurricanes and just seven tropical storms, while the Pacific is packed with named systems. Scientists say a powerful El Niño, plus dry African conditions, is disrupting hurricanes weather patterns—suppressing Atlantic storms while fueling rapid Pacific intensification.

Key Takeaways

• The Atlantic has seven named storms and zero confirmed hurricanes so far in 2026, with activity near century-low levels.
• The eastern and central Pacific have already logged about 18 named storms, including multiple intense hurricanes such as Polo and Nolo.
• A strong El Niño is increasing Atlantic wind shear while warming Pacific waters and cutting shear there.
• An Ethiopian drought and Saharan dust are also helping keep Atlantic tropical waves weak.
• Late-season Atlantic hurricanes remain possible, but researchers say this year is shaping up as one of the quietest since reliable records began around 1950.

What happened to the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons?

In a typical year, the Atlantic and eastern Pacific each produce roughly 14 to 15 named storms and seven to eight hurricanes by Nov. 30. This year looks nothing like that.

According to USA Today, the Atlantic has formed only seven tropical storms and still has not produced a confirmed hurricane. Tropical Storm Gonzalo, the season’s seventh named system, formed around Sept. 25—about three weeks later than usual for a “G” storm.

Meanwhile, the eastern and central Pacific have been hyperactive, with 18 named storms already. The eastern Pacific alone has produced eight hurricanes. As of late September, Hurricane Polo was slamming toward Mexico’s Baja California, and Category 4 Hurricane Nolo was passing south of Hawaii with gusty winds and heavy rain threats.

Why are the two oceans so out of whack?

Meteorologists largely blame a powerful—“super”—El Niño. Warmer equatorial Pacific waters fuel stronger storms and lower wind shear there. In the North Atlantic, the same pattern ramps up vertical wind shear that shreds developing cyclones.

Colorado State’s Phil Klotzbach told USA Today Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy was around nine in late September versus a typical total near 88. He said high shear has been “the big story,” and that the basin may be among the quietest since 1950. The eastern Pacific’s ACE, by contrast, was about 235 versus a more typical 108.

El Niño is not the only factor. Retired National Hurricane Center specialist Stacy Stewart said a severe Ethiopian drought—rainfall deficits of 40% to 70% in June and July—reduced the strong tropical waves that often seed Atlantic hurricanes. Dry air and Saharan dust have added more hostility over the basin.

Does this quiet Atlantic mean the danger is over?

Not necessarily. Forecasters still cannot rule out a late-season Atlantic hurricane or two before the official end date of Nov. 30. Tropical Storm Fay was still lingering far from land while fighting hostile conditions, and The Weather Channel noted another Atlantic area of interest near Bermuda.

The Pacific threat is immediate. Polo rapidly intensified—from tropical storm to Category 5 in under 24 hours, with winds near 180 mph—and was forecast to hit Baja with damaging winds, flooding rain, and surge. Moisture from Polo and remnants of Odalys was also expected to feed thunderstorms and flood risk into the southwestern United States.

Hawaii has already faced multiple close calls this season, including Nolo after earlier threats from Lala and Lowell. For ongoing market-moving risk coverage, follow BlasterPost’s Fintech & Crypto Alerts hub.

Bottom line: 2026’s hurricane map is split by climate pattern and African drought—quiet Atlantic, explosive Pacific—and the imbalance still matters for coastal communities through the rest of the season.