Hurricane tracker: Gulf low may become a depression
A low-pressure system forming in the northeastern Gulf near Florida this weekend could become a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Bertha early next week, though the National Hurricane Center rates development odds as low. Hurricane tracker outlooks still flag heavy rain from Florida to the Carolinas regardless of whether the system is named.
Key Takeaways
- A Gulf low is expected to form near Florida this weekend, with a low chance of becoming a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Bertha.
- Locally heavy rain remains the main threat from Florida to the Carolinas, with up to 5 inches possible from west-central Florida to the Big Bend.
- Computer models lean toward the system drifting west or northwest along the Gulf Coast while upper winds keep development odds low.
- The National Hurricane Center is also watching a weak eastern Atlantic wave, but Saharan dust and hostile winds make land threats unlikely.
Forecasters say the story is less about a named storm and more about soaking summer rain. According to The Weather Channel, an area of low pressure should take shape in the northeastern Gulf this weekend, fueled by warmer-than-average water in the upper 80s.
That setup is enough to spark thunderstorms near the center. If those storms organize, a tropical depression could follow as soon as this weekend or early next week. For more odd weather and climate curiosities, see our Bizarre World coverage.
Will the Gulf low become Tropical Storm Bertha?
It might, but odds are not high. FOX Weather meteorologist Bryan Norcross says the National Hurricane Center still puts tropical development chances in the low category.
Warm Gulf water helps. A favorable environment otherwise is less clear. Scenarios include a quick inland slide over Florida or the Southeast, a stall over the northeast Gulf, or a westward drift in the northern Gulf.
Model consensus favors the non-tropical low remaining in the Gulf, drifting west or northwest along or over the coast as flow around a heat-dome high to the north pushes it. While over water, a slight chance of tropical depression status remains.
Where will the heaviest rain fall this weekend?
You do not need a named storm for summer downpours. Locally heavy rain is expected this weekend into early next week from parts of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into the Carolinas.
Up to 5 inches could fall from west-central Florida to the Big Bend. Northern and central Florida look most likely to see soaking rain beyond typical afternoon storms.
A sagging, weakening frontal boundary is also wringing out rain near the Southeast coast. Drought areas, including western Florida, can use the moisture. Heavier bands that stall for a few hours could still trigger local flash flooding, especially in cities.
Enhanced storminess from the northern Gulf Coast across much of the Florida peninsula, and possibly to Georgia and the Carolina coast, is expected to peak Sunday through Tuesday.
What else is the hurricane tracker watching in the Atlantic?
Beyond the Gulf, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave that moved off Africa. Slow development is possible, but chances of becoming a tropical depression are low.
That system is running into Saharan dust, and upper winds are expected to turn too hostile for organization. Cabo Verde Islands may need to watch it briefly, but there is no land threat otherwise.
July 17 is the average date for the Atlantic's second named storm. Forecasters note the basin is slightly behind that pace, which fits an El Niño midsummer lull with hostile winds and dusty Atlantic air limiting development.
For now, coastal residents should treat this as a rain-and-thunderstorm event first. Keep checking official hurricane tracker updates, because conditions can change quickly in hurricane season.