Gold price steadies after its worst quarter since 2013
Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday, July 1, 2026, after closing the worst quarter in 13 years. The price gold firmed to about $4,046 per ounce by mid-morning, still below $4,100, as traders weighed Federal Reserve rate-hike fears against longer-term support from central bank buying and portfolio diversification.
Key Takeaways
- Gold fell roughly 16% in the second quarter through June 30—its steepest quarterly drop since 2013.
- Bullion remains well below its January 29 record high of $5,586.20 and is down 7.76% year-to-date.
- Higher real yields, a stronger dollar, and hawkish Fed expectations have pressured non-yielding gold.
- Some analysts still see room for the price gold to rise later in 2026 if rate fears ease or central bank demand holds.
- Inflation volatility, debt risks, and reserve diversification continue to support gold's portfolio role.
Why did gold just post its worst quarter in 13 years?
Gold suffered its worst three-month stretch since the second quarter of 2013, with about 16% wiped off the metal in the period ended June 30, according to CNBC. The slide followed a January spike to an all-time high of $5,586.20, when the Iran war pushed energy prices higher and reignited inflation fears.
Since then, investors have turned more negative on bullion in a potentially higher-rate environment. UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo told CNBC that gold's safe-haven appeal has been offset by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, higher real yields, a firmer dollar, and a less dovish market view on the Federal Reserve's rate path.
What is the price gold trading at right now?
On June 30, gold was trading at $4,014.56 per ounce at 9 a.m. Eastern Time, a $33.35 loss from the prior day at the same hour but still more than $700 above levels a year earlier, Fortune reported.
By Wednesday morning, July 1, gold August futures opened at $4,025, down 0.3% from Tuesday's close, before firming to $4,046.60 as of 8:03 a.m. ET, according to Yahoo Finance. Prices remained below the $4,100 level after trending lower to levels last seen in 2025.
Could the price gold recover later in 2026?
Despite the selloff, some analysts argue bullion is not finished rallying. J.P. Morgan recently said it expects gold to rise as high as $6,000 this year, citing ongoing central bank demand, though Fed policy could significantly shape the trajectory, Yahoo Finance noted.
The most significant bearish risk, according to J.P. Morgan's Gregory Shearer, is a scenario where U.S. growth and employment stay strong while inflation accelerates, solidifying a Fed hiking cycle. Still, Monica Defend of Amundi Investment Institute told CNBC that investors face a world where central bank independence is being tested, inflation is more volatile, and concentration risks are growing—factors that analysts say should help support gold alongside other precious metals.
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What should investors watch next?
Staunovo noted that gold's recent move mirrors the spike-and-consolidation pattern seen in past geopolitical crises, though elevated valuations and earlier dovish Fed expectations made the metal more sensitive to macro drivers this time.
Near-term direction likely hinges on Fed signals, dollar moves, and whether inflation fears from Middle East tensions keep rate-hike bets alive. For now, Wednesday's modest rebound offers a brief reprieve—but the quarter's damage is already on the books.