Francesco Nuzzi vs Xiao Long: UFC Shanghai odds and pick
Francesco Nuzzi is the betting underdog (+145) against Xiao Long (-175) at UFC Shanghai, with most analysts favoring the veteran Chinese bantamweight despite Long's two-fight skid. Nuzzi debuts on short notice after a no-contest. Consensus picks lean Long, with Yahoo projecting a finish under 2.5 rounds.
Key Takeaways
- Francesco Nuzzi (+145) faces Xiao Long (-175) in a bantamweight prelim at UFC Shanghai.
- Long holds a 3-3 UFC record but has lost his last two fights by decision; Nuzzi is 11-2 with two no-contests.
- DraftKings lists under 2.5 rounds at +110; Yahoo picks Long and the under.
- Six of eight MMAOddsBreaker analysts favor Long; two back Nuzzi for his debut.
- Sports Gambling Podcast parlays Long Xiao ML with Lawrence Lui ML at +122.
What happened before this Francesco Nuzzi fight?
Xiao Long (27-11) enters on a two-fight losing streak, dropping unanimous decisions to Cody Garbrandt in March 2026 and SuYoung You the previous August. His UFC record stands at 3-3 since debuting in June 2024.
Francesco Nuzzi (11-2, 2 NC) earned this UFC debut on short notice. He finished Lucas Rodrigues at Cage Warriors 195 last October, but his most recent bout ended in a no-contest after an accidental low blow forced an early stoppage. That disrupted camp heading into Shanghai.
What are the Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi odds?
Per Yahoo Sports, DraftKings lists Xiao Long at -175 and Francesco Nuzzi at +145. Totals sit at over 2.5 rounds (-140) and under 2.5 rounds (+110).
Long's finishing résumé includes five knockouts and nine submissions among 27 career wins. Nuzzi brings power and grappling, but a short-notice debut against a UFC-tested opponent historically favors the veteran.
Who should you pick at UFC Shanghai?
Yahoo's final prediction backs Xiao Long (-175) with under 2.5 rounds (+110), citing Long's diverse finishing arsenal and Nuzzi's disrupted preparation. Expect pressure early and a finish before the judges intervene.
At MMAOddsBreaker, six of eight staff analysts pick Long, while Nick Kalikas and Big Marcel side with Nuzzi. The Sports Gambling Podcast favors Long, noting Nuzzi's ground deficit against a fighter who excels there, parlaying Long ML with Lawrence Lui ML at +122.
Nuzzi backers point to Long's skid, debut adrenaline, and fresher legs at 28 with 38 pro fights. Yet short-notice UFC debuts against seasoned opponents rarely end well. For more offbeat fight-night angles, browse our Bizarre World coverage.
When does Long vs Nuzzi take place?
The bout airs on UFC Shanghai prelims as part of the Nurmagomedov vs Song Fight Night card in Shanghai, China. Prelims begin around 3:00 AM EST on August 29, 2026, per the Sports Gambling Podcast schedule.