France leads World Cup 2026 power rankings before round of 16
France is No. 1 in the World Cup top power rankings from ESPN and The Athletic ahead of the round of 16, with Spain second and Argentina third after a shaky 3-2 extra-time win over Cape Verde. FIFA also ranks France first globally, overtaking the defending champions on July 3. With 16 teams left, the title race has narrowed but the favorites look familiar.
Key Takeaways
- ESPN and The Athletic both rank France first entering the round of 16; Spain is second and Argentina third.
- Argentina needed extra time to beat Cape Verde 3-2, dropping two spots in ESPN's list and to No. 2 in FIFA's world ranking.
- Spain has won three straight without conceding, including a 3-0 round-of-32 win over Austria.
- Co-hosts USA (No. 9) and Mexico (No. 10) remain alive, while the Netherlands was the only top-10 FIFA team eliminated before the last 16.
- France leads the tournament with 13 goals and The Athletic's projection tool gives Les Bleus a 28% title chance.
Why is France the world cup top pick before the round of 16?
France has been the story of the knockout opener. ESPN notes Les Bleus are the first team to score three goals in five straight World Cup games, leading the 2026 tournament with 13 goals. Kylian Mbappe has six goals and Michael Olise five assists, while Ousmane Dembele anchors a fearsome front line.
After group wins over Senegal, Iraq and Norway, France cruised past Sweden in the round of 32. The Athletic calls them on track for a third straight World Cup final and forecasts a 28% championship probability. USA Today confirms FIFA now ranks France No. 1 worldwide, ahead of Argentina.
The bracket has opened too. Germany's exit means France faces Paraguay rather than a heavyweight in the round of 16. For more on how data shapes big-tournament forecasts, see our Future Tech & AI Wonders coverage.
How did Argentina slip after the Cape Verde thriller?
Argentina's 3-2 extra-time win over World Cup debutants Cape Verde was far from comfortable. The holders were pegged back twice before Diney's own goal in the 111th minute sent them through. ESPN dropped Argentina two places to third, citing concern that Lionel Messi and company have not truly put opponents away.
Still, Messi leads the Golden Boot race with seven goals, and The Athletic keeps Argentina third, noting the holders remain serious contenders. Argentina posted more than two expected goals in each of their last three matches while conceding less than one xG per game across four outings. They face Egypt next as heavy favorites.
The Cape Verde scare also reshaped FIFA's table. As USA Today reported, Argentina fell from the world No. 1 spot they held for most of the tournament.
Where do Spain, the co-hosts and the rest rank?
Spain climbed to second in both ESPN and The Athletic lists after a dominant 3-0 round-of-32 win over Austria. Lamine Yamal starred for 85 minutes, and Mikel Oyarzabal scored twice. Spain has not conceded a goal in three straight wins and allowed the fewest shots (19) and lowest xG (0.9) of any remaining team.
England (fourth), Colombia (fifth) and Morocco (sixth) fill out ESPN's title-favorite tier. Brazil sits eighth after Gabriel Martinelli's late winner against Japan, while co-hosts USA and Mexico rank ninth and tenth. Mexico has not conceded a goal; the USA faces Belgium without suspended striker Folarin Balogun.
Portugal (12th) meets Spain on Monday in a brutal Iberian derby. For the full updated list and team-by-team analysis, see ESPN's round-of-16 power rankings and The Athletic's day-23 re-ranking.