The Bitcoin chart still pointing to a $30k-$40k bottom
Forbes contributor Clem Chambers says Bitcoin is still headed for a bottom between $30,000 and $40,000, citing a cycle chart and rising policy risk. For anyone following fidelity bitcoin headlines in this bear market, that call sits against on-chain clocks nearing 50 days and rival targets from $58,000 to a year-end $100,000 rebound.
Key Takeaways
- Chambers maps a high-probability BTC floor between $30,000 and $40,000 on a cycle chart published by Forbes.
- K33 data shows BTC supply in loss crossed 50% on June 5, starting a historical bottom countdown now past 42 days.
- Fortune notes Bitcoin near half its $126,000 all-time high, with prices recently around $60,000.
- Grayscale’s Zach Pandl sees a possible $58,000 low; 21Shares’ Adrian Fritz still targets $100,000 by year-end.
What does the Forbes Bitcoin chart actually show?
In a July 12 Forbes Digital Assets column, Chambers—who calls himself a “bitcoin vari,” not a perma-bear—argues the path to a cycle low is getting clearer. He expects the bottom between $30,000 and $40,000, describing that as a high-probability outcome rather than fate.
He says he called Bitcoin higher in 2017, 2021, and 2025, then turned bearish on the way down. The piece frames the chart as another close variant of that same cycle map as price keeps falling.
You can read the full column on Forbes, which remains the clearest public statement of his $30,000–$40,000 thesis.
Why do some analysts still see a deeper drop?
Chambers flags heavy headwinds beyond price action. He points to Bitcoin’s use by U.S. adversaries for sanctions evasion and illicit transactions, citing Iran and North Korea, and warns Washington could eventually clamp down on that utility.
He also notes that striking Iran could knock roughly 25% of mining hash rate offline—another risk to the four-year appreciation cycle. Bitcoin will not go to zero, he writes, but the familiar cycle could reverse.
Separately, Fortune reports three bear-market drivers from industry analysts: conditioned four-year cycle expectations (Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan), rising U.S. inflation at 4.1% year over year in June amid Iran-linked oil prices (Grayscale’s Zach Pandl), and excess leverage being squeezed out of the system.
How close is Bitcoin to a macro bottom on-chain?
Cointelegraph reporting via TradingView says K33 Research flagged more than half of BTC supply held at a loss after the 50% line was crossed on June 5. Historically, once that threshold hits, a macro bottom has arrived within 13 to 101 days.
With 42 days already elapsed, 2026’s window is Bitcoin’s second-longest on that measure. CryptoQuant later put supply in loss near 46% as of July 17, while its realized-cap variance z-score of -2.35 sat in the bottom 6% of its historical range—levels that previously preceded strong twelve-month returns.
Price context remains mixed: Fortune says Bitcoin has traded around $60,000 for the past month, about half the $126,000 peak. Pandl projects a $58,000 bottom; Fritz looks for a summer low and a rebound toward $100,000 by year-end if rate cuts and an end to the Iran conflict arrive. For more market alerts, see BlasterPost’s Fintech & Crypto Alerts desk.