Expert picks for the Open Championship at Birkdale
The Open Championship tees off Thursday at Royal Birkdale with Scottie Scheffler the +750 favorite to defend his Claret Jug on an unusually firm, fast links. Experts and a major-winning model split on value: fade Tommy Fleetwood, watch Ludvig Aberg, and lean on steady names like Justin Rose amid unprecedented dry conditions.
Key Takeaways
- The 154th Open Championship begins July 16, 2026, at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England, with first tee times at 1:35 a.m. ET.
- Defending champion Scottie Scheffler is the +750 favorite; Rory McIlroy sits next at +850, per CBS Sports odds.
- Players call the firm, fast, dry setup unprecedented compared with Jordan Spieth's wet 2017 Birkdale win.
- A SportsLine model that has nailed 17 majors fades Fleetwood and elevates Aberg as a top-3 contender.
- PGA Tour Golfbet experts like Wyndham Clark for a top 10 and Justin Rose in top-20 and matchup props.
What is happening at the Open Championship this week?
The 154th Open Championship starts Thursday at Royal Birkdale Golf Club. According to CBS Sports, Scheffler tees off at 4:58 a.m. ET as the defending Open champion and board favorite.
English contenders Matt Fitzpatrick (+1300) and Tommy Fleetwood (+1500) join Jon Rahm (+2000) and Xander Schauffele (+2500) among the next tier. Spieth won the last Open staged here in 2017 on a soft, wet course—conditions players say look nothing like this week.
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Why are Open Championship conditions called unprecedented?
ESPN reports golfers raving about firm and fast turf after weeks of unseasonably warm weather on England's northwest coast. Forecasts point to little or no rain across all four rounds, with weekend highs expected to drop into the low 70s.
Jon Rahm said whipping Irish Sea winds could let players hit a 6-iron 280 yards downwind and called the setup "unprecedented for sure." Rory McIlroy labeled the firm-and-fast test a "double-edged sword," noting the rough has burnt out and is less penal than when he visited weeks earlier.
That may push some in the 156-man field to attack with driver to clear deep fairway bunkers—strategy that would have looked reckless on the soft Birkdale Spieth conquered in 2017.
Who are the expert picks for the Open Championship?
SportsLine's model simulated the tournament 10,000 times. One surprise: Fleetwood, tied for the fourth-lowest odds at +1500, is projected to miss the top five. He has Open top-5 finishes but missed the cut in 2024, finished outside the top 10 last year, and was 27th at Birkdale in 2017.
Another model surprise: Ludvig Aberg (+3300) lands as a top-3 contender despite no major win yet. He finished top 25 at last year's Open, posted a T4 at the PGA Championship, and rates as one of the tour's best drivers in distance and accuracy.
On the PGA Tour Expert Picks desk, Will Gray backs Wyndham Clark for a top 10 (+330) on recent links form in Scotland and at Royal Portrush, plus Daniel Berger for a top 20 (+650) citing three Open top-30s in five starts, including a T27 at Birkdale in 2017. Chris Breece prefers Justin Rose over Tyrrell Hatton in a 72-hole matchup (-104) and Rose to finish top 20 with ties (+150).