Dream vs Mercury prediction: picks and odds for tonight
The Atlanta Dream are road favorites (-5.5, -218 moneyline) against the Phoenix Mercury on Saturday, Aug. 22, at Mortgage Matchup Center (10 p.m. ET). After Rhyne Howard's 26-point blowout win over the Sparks, betting analysts lean Dream -5.5, Angel Reese Over 12.5 rebounds, and the Under in this dream mercury matchup.
Atlanta (23-13) visits Phoenix (13-23) for the third meeting this season. The Dream won the last two, including a 96-82 victory on Aug. 5. With Atlanta on a five-game winning streak in this rivalry and Howard firing from deep, oddsmakers and analysts see clear value on the visitors.
Key Takeaways
- Spread: Dream -5.5 (-110); moneyline Dream -218, Mercury +180; total 175.5–176.5.
- Atlanta has won five straight against Phoenix and covered in three consecutive road games.
- Top props: Angel Reese Over 12.5 rebounds; Rhyne Howard Over 3.5 three-pointers.
- Injuries: Brionna Jones (out) for Atlanta; Kelsey Plum (questionable) for Phoenix.
- Watch on WANFA and WPCH.2 at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix.
Why Are the Dream Favored Over the Mercury Tonight?
Atlanta arrives riding momentum after crushing the Los Angeles Sparks 124-88, with Howard scoring 26 points. The Dream are 11-7 on the road and rank fourth in defensive rating, while Phoenix sits 12th in offensive rating and is just 5-11 at home.
Covers.com notes Atlanta is 4-1 against the spread in its last five meetings with Phoenix and has outscored opponents by 28.7 points per game across three straight road wins. Sportsgambler.com backs Dream -5.5 at -110, estimating a 55–60% probability versus the market's 52.4%.
Which Player Props Have the Most Value?
Angel Reese leads the WNBA with 11.9 rebounds per game and is on a 10-game double-digit rebound streak. Covers recommends Reese Over 12.5 rebounds (-135), noting Phoenix allows the fifth-most boards and the second-most offensive rebounds over the last 10 games.
Howard is tied for the league lead with 3.3 made threes per game on 37.5% shooting. She went 11-of-21 from deep across two games against Phoenix this season. Covers likes Howard Over 3.5 three-pointers (+118), citing the Mercury's league-worst 9.9 made threes allowed per game.
What Same-Game Parlay Do Analysts Like?
Covers builds a +420 SGP: Reese Over 12.5 rebounds, Dream -5.5, and Under 176.5. Atlanta allows the fourth-fewest points and Phoenix ranks fifth-fewest in scoring, supporting the Under angle.
Sportsgambler's parlay stacks Dream -5.5, Under 175.5, and Reese Over 2.5 assists. Their correct-score pick: Dream 90, Mercury 81. For more offbeat sports angles, browse our Bizarre World coverage hub.
How Can You Watch Dream vs Mercury?
Tip-off is Saturday, Aug. 22, at 10 p.m. ET from Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix. The game airs on WANFA and WPCH.2. For full injury and matchup context, see the FOX Sports preview.
Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas averages 14.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 8.2 assists, while Kahleah Copper has scored 20.4 points per game over her last 10. But with Atlanta's recent dominance and Phoenix's home struggles, the consensus points toward a Dream cover and a low-scoring grind.