Daniil Donchenko vs. Soriano: UFC Paris pick and odds
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom picks Punahele Soriano to upset Daniil Donchenko by knockout in Round 2 at UFC Fight Night 287 in Paris. Oddsmakers list Donchenko as a heavy favorite at -240 on FanDuel, with Soriano at +190, while the welterweight main-card bout streams on Paramount+ around 4:10 p.m. ET.
Key Takeaways
- Daniil Donchenko enters UFC Fight Night 287 undefeated in the UFC at 3-0, per MMA Junkie.
- Punahele Soriano brings a four-fight win streak and is the +190 underdog on FanDuel.
- Analyst Dan Tom predicts a Soriano knockout in Round 2 at Accor Arena in Paris.
- The main-card bout is expected around 4:10 p.m. ET and streams live on Paramount+.
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Who is favored in Daniil Donchenko vs. Soriano?
According to MMA Junkie, Daniil Donchenko (14-2 MMA, 3-0 UFC) is the clear betting favorite at -240 via FanDuel. Soriano sits at +190.
Donchenko has beaten Rodrigo Sezinando, Alex Morono, and Theodor Berggren since joining the UFC. Soriano (13-4 MMA, 7-4 UFC) arrives on wins over Miguel Baeza, Uros Medic, Nikolay Veretennikov, and Ramiz Brahimaj.
The matchup lands on the UFC Fight Night 287 main card Saturday at Accor Arena in Paris. Both fighters walk into a potential welterweight war, with public money leaning toward the Ukrainian.
Why could Punahele Soriano pull the upset?
Tom calls Soriano a former middleweight with experience, wrestling, and fight-changing power. He trains at Xtreme Couture MMA and, in Tom’s view, poses a real test for Donchenko’s move to welterweight.
Tom noted Donchenko is officially 1-0 against UFC-level lefties after beating short-notice debutant Theodor Berggren, but disliked how fast and loose Donchenko looked in southpaw power exchanges. That is why Tom officially picks Soriano to score the upset by KO in Round 2.
KHON2 reports the 33-year-old Kahuku graduate has fought through setbacks, including leg tears after a prior fight and a car accident before camp. Soriano said he remains hungry and grateful for the UFC opportunity, and that a postponement let him enjoy his daughter’s first birthday at home.
“I’m not a big traveler,” Soriano told KHON2 ahead of his first trip to France, while still stressing excitement for the bout.
When does the UFC Paris fight start and how to watch?
MMA Junkie expects Donchenko and Soriano to walk to the cage at approximately 4:10 p.m. ET. KHON2 lists the start around 9 a.m. Hawaii time. The fight streams live on Paramount+ as part of the UFC Fight Night main card.
Odds and expert leanings can shift, but the published FanDuel line still frames Daniil Donchenko as the chalk and Soriano as the live dog with knockout upside.