Damian Pinas favored at UFC 329, but picks split on Almeida

DIRECT ANSWER: Damian Pinas is the betting favorite for his UFC 329 middleweight prelim against Cesar Almeida, listed at roughly -250 to -258 at major books. The 9-1 finisher's power, reach, and youth drive that line—but ClutchPoints backs the +210 underdog Almeida by decision, while BetMGM expects Pinas to win by knockout.

The bout lands on Saturday's early prelims at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, pairing two Dana White's Contender Series alumni in a striker-versus-striker test that oddsmakers and analysts cannot fully agree on.

Key Takeaways

• Damian Pinas opens as the favorite (-250 at BetMGM, -258 at ClutchPoints) against +200 to +210 underdog Cesar Almeida.
• BetMGM projects a TKO/KO for the 24-year-old prospect, citing a 14-year age gap and 5.5-inch reach edge.
• ClutchPoints picks Almeida by decision at +210, pairing it with Over 1.5 rounds (-120).
• Pinas is 9-1 with a 100% finish rate; Almeida is 7-2 with kickboxing roots and five UFC appearances.
• The fight sits on the UFC 329 early prelims during International Fight Week in Las Vegas.

Why Is Damian Pinas the Favorite at UFC 329?

Books see Damian Pinas as the clear favorite heading into UFC 329. BetMGM lists him at -250, while ClutchPoints has him at -258. Almeida sits at +200 and +210, respectively.

Pinas brings a 9-1 record and a 100% finishing rate into the cage. At 24, he is 14 years younger than the 38-year-old Almeida and holds a 79.5-inch reach against Almeida's 74 inches—a 5.5-inch advantage that matters in a stand-up fight.

BetMGM's Anatoly Pimentel calls Pinas the more explosive puncher and expects him to pressure forward relentlessly. Almeida may lean on leg kicks from his kickboxing background, but Pimentel believes Pinas can absorb that kicking game and still find a finish.

What Do BetMGM and ClutchPoints Predict?

The sharpest split is not on the moneyline alone—it is on how the fight actually ends. BetMGM backs Pinas to win by TKO or KO, pointing to his wrestling and clinch ability if Almeida forces grappling exchanges.

ClutchPoints sees the same striker-versus-striker dynamic differently. Its analysts expect Pinas to crash distance early with pace and aggression, but argue Almeida has navigated more layered striking fights and can punish reckless entries.

ClutchPoints' final pick is Cesar Almeida at +210 with Over 1.5 rounds at -120, projecting a tense opening followed by body and leg work that leads to a decision. BetMGM's lone projection favors an early Pinas stoppage instead.

How Do Pinas and Almeida Stack Up on Paper?

Both men stand 6-foot-1 at middleweight, but their paths into the UFC tell different stories. Pinas, a former Victory Extreme Fighting Championship titleholder, earned his contract on Dana White's Contender Series by stopping Vitor Costa, then made his UFC debut with a first-round finish over Wes Schultz at UFC Mexico.

Almeida joined the Contender Series in August 2023 and has since fought five times in the UFC. He beat Dylan Budka, Ihor Potieria, and Abdul Razak Alhassan, while losses to Roman Kopylov and Cezary Oleksiejczuk account for his 7-2 ledger.

Per BetMGM's tale of the tape, Pinas fights as a full MMA stylist with a 100% finish rate. Almeida is listed as a striker with a 71% finishing rate—credentials that make this one of the more debated prelim matchups on a loaded fight-week card.

Where Does This Bout Fit on the UFC 329 Card?

Pinas versus Almeida is scheduled for the early prelims of UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 on Saturday, July 11, 2026, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The full event anchors International Fight Week with Conor McGregor's return bout against Max Holloway in the main event.

For bettors tracking the middleweight clash, round totals add another layer. ClutchPoints lists Over 1.5 rounds at -120 and Under 1.5 at -110—lines that reflect the tension between a prospect built to finish early and a veteran built to survive and score.

Official fight-week details and the full bout order are posted on UFC.com. With books favoring Damian Pinas and at least one major outlet backing Cesar Almeida, this prelim could swing either way once the cage door closes.