Cryptos next altseason may have fewer winners, Wintermute says
Wintermute says cryptos next altseason may produce fewer winners as institutional investors concentrate capital in a narrower set of digital assets. Institutions generated a record 72% of the market maker’s spot OTC flow in the first half of 2026, while activity across the market’s long tail weakened and post-rally interest faded faster.
Key Takeaways
- Institutional counterparties drove 72% of Wintermute’s spot OTC flow in H1 2026, the highest share on record.
- That share rose from 61% in H2 2025 and 59% in H1 2025, the firm’s highest institutional share on record.
- From H1 2024 to H1 2026, unique tokens traded by institutions grew only 24%, versus 76% for retail.
- Institutional activity after price and volume surges faded in about one day; retail stayed elevated for about three.
- Wider market data also show capital clustering in larger altcoins, consistent with a more selective next altseason.
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Why are fewer tokens attracting institutional capital?
According to Cointelegraph’s report on Wintermute’s H1 2026 OTC flow findings, liquidity is concentrating in assets institutions already favor.
Wintermute said institutional activity is clustered in fewer tokens, while trading across the market’s “long tail” has weakened. The firm said that pattern suggests future altcoin rallies could become narrower and more selective.
Between H1 2024 and H1 2026, the number of unique tokens traded by Wintermute’s institutional counterparties rose just 24%. Retail clients expanded unique-token trading by 76% over the same span.
How does institutional trading differ from retail after surges?
Wintermute found institutional flow following a surge in a token’s price and volume typically faded after roughly one day. Retail activity, by contrast, usually remained elevated for about three days.
With institutions now the dominant OTC counterparties, that shorter follow-through after spikes is a key input for how altcoin moves may unfold.
The firm’s desk data show institutions accounted for 72% of spot OTC flow in H1 2026, versus 61% in H2 2025 and 59% in H1 2025—the highest institutional share on Wintermute’s record.
What does this mean for crypto’s next altseason?
Wintermute’s proprietary OTC numbers line up with other concentration signals cited in the same report. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said on June 20 that the traditional rotation of Bitcoin profits into smaller crypto assets had “basically disappeared,” with Bitcoin-denominated altcoin pair volume near its weakest since 2021.
The 10 largest non-stablecoin altcoins accounted for about 80.5% of non-Bitcoin, non-stablecoin market capitalization. Kaiko earlier noted that in July 2025 the ten largest altcoins made up 63% of altcoin trading volume, up from about 50% several months before.
DWF Labs managing partner Andrei Grachev argued on March 15 that broad altcoin rallies are giving way to selective sector moves, with institutions focused on Bitcoin, Ether, and tokenized real-world assets amid too many tokens competing for limited capital.
Bottom line: Wintermute’s flow data suggest cryptos next altseason may still arrive, but with fewer winners and capital tilted toward the assets institutions already prefer.